Financial Fragility, Sovereign Default Risk and the Limits to Commercial Bank Bail-outs
AbstractWe analyse the poisonous interaction between bank rescues, financial fragility and sovereign debt discounts. In our model balance sheet constrained financial intermediaries finance both capital expenditure of intermediate goods producers and government deficits. The financial intermediaries face the risk of a (partial) default of the government on its debt obligations. We analyse the impact of a financial crisis, first under full government credibility and then with an endogenous sovereign debt discount. We introduce long term government debt, which gives rise to the possibility of capital losses on bank balance sheets. The negative feedback effects from falling bond prices on the economy are shown to increase with the average duration of the government bonds, as higher interest rates on new debt lead to capital losses on banks' holding of existing long term (government) debt. The associated increase in credit tightness leads to a negative amplification effect, significantly increasing output losses and declines in investment after a financial crisis. We introduce sovereign default risk through the existence of a maximum sustainable level of debt, derived from the maximum level of taxation that is politically feasible. When close to this limit, sovereign discounts emerge reflecting potential defaults on debt, creating a strong link between sovereign default risk and financial fragility emerges. A debt-financed recapitalisation of the financial intermediaries causes bond prices to drop triggering capital losses at the bank under intervention. This mechanism shows the limits to conventional bank bail-outs in countries with fragile public creditworthiness, limits that became very visible during the Great Recession in Southern Europe.
Download InfoTo our knowledge, this item is not available for download. To find whether it is available, there are three options:
1. Check below under "Related research" whether another version of this item is available online.
2. Check on the provider's web page whether it is in fact available.
3. Perform a search for a similarly titled item that would be available.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-179/IV/DSF65.
Date of creation: 25 Oct 2013
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Financial Intermediation; Macrofinancial Fragility; Fiscal Policy; Sovereign Default Risk;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009.
"Maturity, Indebtedness, and Default Risk,"
KoÃ§ University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum
0901, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2009. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 09-2, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Burcu Eyigungor & Satyajit Chatterjee, 2008. "Maturity, Indebtedness and Default Risk," 2008 Meeting Papers 1001, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2011. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 11-33, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Satyajit Chatterjee & Burcu Eyigungor, 2010. "Maturity, indebtedness, and default risk," Working Papers 10-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008.
"Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds,"
Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute Working Paper
19, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2012. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, University of Chicago Press, vol. 120(2), pages 187 - 232.
- Ananth Ramanarayanan & Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default and the Maturity Structure in Sovereign Bonds," 2008 Meeting Papers 479, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Cristina Arellano & Ananth Ramanarayanan, 2008. "Default and the maturity structure in sovereign bonds," Staff Report, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis 410, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Claessens, Stijn & van Wijnbergen, Sweder, 1993. "Secondary Market Prices and Mexico's Brady Deal," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 108(4), pages 967-82, November.
- Arellano, Cristina, 2008.
"Default risk and income fluctuations in emerging economies,"
7867, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Cristina Arellano, 2008. "Default Risk and Income Fluctuations in Emerging Economies," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(3), pages 690-712, June.
- Michael Woodford, 2001.
"Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability,"
NBER Working Papers
8072, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
- Uribe, MartÃn, 2002.
"A fiscal theory of sovereign risk,"
Working Paper Series, European Central Bank
0187, European Central Bank.
- Calvo, Guillermo A., 1983. "Staggered prices in a utility-maximizing framework," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 383-398, September.
- Yun, Tack, 1996. "Nominal price rigidity, money supply endogeneity, and business cycles," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 345-370, April.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.