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Forecasting Earnings Forecasts

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  • Bert de Bruijn

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Philip Hans Franses

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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    Abstract

    We analyze earnings forecasts retrieved from the I/B/E/S database concerning 596 firms for the sample 1995 to 2011, with a specific focus on whether these earnings forecasts can be predicted from available data. Our main result is that earnings forecasts can be predicted quite accurately using publicly available information. Second, we show that earnings forecasts that are less predictable are also less accurate. We also show that earnings forecasters who quote forecasts that are too extreme need to correct these as the earnings announcement approaches. Finally, we show that the unpredictable component of earnings forecasts can contain information which we can use to improve the forecasts.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-121/III.

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    Date of creation: 22 Aug 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130121

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    Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

    Related research

    Keywords: Earnings Forecasts; Earnings Announcements; Financial Markets; Financial Analysts.;

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    References

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    1. Landsman, Wayne R. & Maydew, Edward L. & Thornock, Jacob R., 2012. "The information content of annual earnings announcements and mandatory adoption of IFRS," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 34-54.
    2. Clement, Michael B. & Hales, Jeffrey & Xue, Yanfeng, 2011. "Understanding analysts' use of stock returns and other analysts' revisions when forecasting earnings," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 279-299, April.
    3. David Laster & Paul Bennett & In Sun Geoum, 1999. "Rational Bias In Macroeconomic Forecasts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 293-318, February.
    4. Sheng, Xuguang & Thevenot, Maya, 2012. "A new measure of earnings forecast uncertainty," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 21-33.
    5. Lamont, Owen A., 2002. "Macroeconomic forecasts and microeconomic forecasters," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 48(3), pages 265-280, July.
    6. Bolliger, Guido, 2004. "The characteristics of individual analysts' forecasts in Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(9), pages 2283-2309, September.
    7. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Woojin Kim, 2007. "Do Analysts Herd? An Analysis of Recommendations and Market Reactions," NBER Working Papers 12866, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Kim, Yongtae & Lobo, Gerald J. & Song, Minsup, 2011. "Analyst characteristics, timing of forecast revisions, and analyst forecasting ability," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(8), pages 2158-2168, August.
    9. Brown, Lawrence D., 1993. "Earnings forecasting research: its implications for capital markets research," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 295-320, November.
    10. Michael B. Clement & Senyo Y. Tse, 2005. "Financial Analyst Characteristics and Herding Behavior in Forecasting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 307-341, 02.
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