Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

Prediction Bias Correction for Dynamic Term Structure Models

Contents:

Author Info

  • Eran Raviv

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Registered author(s):

    Abstract

    When the yield curve is modelled using an affine factor model, residuals may still contain relevant information and do not adhere to the familiar white noise assumption.This paper proposes a pragmatic way to improve out of sample performance for yield curve forecasting. The proposed adjustment is illustrated via a pseudo out-of-sample forecasting exercise implementing the widely used Dynamic Nelson Siegel model. Large improvement in forecasting performance is achieved throughout the curve for different forecasting horizons. Results are robust to different time periods, as well as to different model specifications.

    Download Info

    If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
    File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/13041.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-041/III.

    as in new window
    Length:
    Date of creation: 07 Mar 2013
    Date of revision:
    Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130041

    Contact details of provider:
    Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

    Related research

    Keywords: Yield curve; Nelson Siegel; Time varying loadings; Factor models;

    Find related papers by JEL classification:

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    References

    References listed on IDEAS
    Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
    as in new window
    1. Michiel De Pooter & Francesco Ravazzolo & Dick van Dijk, 2010. "Term structure forecasting using macro factors and forecast combination," International Finance Discussion Papers 993, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Lists

    This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130041. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

    If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.