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Individual Expectations and Aggregate Macro Behavior

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  • Tiziana Assenza

    (Catholic University of Milan)

  • Peter Heemeijer

    (University of Amsterdam, and ABN AMRO)

  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Domenico Massaro

    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

The way in which individual expectations shape aggregate macroeconomic variables is crucial for the transmission and effectiveness of monetary policy. We study the individual expectations formation process and the interaction with monetary policy, within a standard New Keynesian model, by means of laboratory experiments with human subjects. Three aggregate outcomes are observed: convergence to some equilibrium level, persistent oscillatory behavior and oscillatory convergence. We fit a heterogeneous expectations model with a performance-based evolutionary selection among heterogeneous forecasting heuristics to the experimental data. A simple heterogeneous expectations switching model fits individual learning as well as aggregate macro behavior and outperforms homogeneous expectations benchmarks. Moreover, in accordance to theoretical results in the literature on monetary policy, we find that an interest rate rule that reacts more than point for point to inflation has some stabilizing effects on inflation in our experimental economies, although convergence can be slow in presence of evolutionary learning.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-016/II.

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Date of creation: 14 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130016

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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Keywords: Experiments; New Keynesian Macro Model; Monetary Policy; Expectations; Heterogeneity;

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  1. Hommes, Cars, 2011. "The heterogeneous expectations hypothesis: Some evidence from the lab," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 1-24, January.
  2. Anufriev, M. & Hommes, C.H., 2009. "Evolutionary Selection of Individual Expectations and Aggregate Outcomes," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-09, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
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  10. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2005. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(3), pages 955-980.
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  23. Mikhail Anufriev & Tiziana Assenza & Cars Hommes & Domenico Massaro, 0000. "Interest Rate Rules and Macroeconomic Stability under Heterogeneous Expectations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 09-040/1, Tinbergen Institute.
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  1. Macroeconomics: The illusion of the "learning literature"
    by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2013-12-13 11:36:00
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