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Behavioral Learning Equilibria

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  • Cars Hommes

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Mei Zhu

    (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics)

Abstract

We propose behavioral learning equilibria as a plausible explanation of coordination of individual expectations and aggregate phenomena such as excess volatility in stock prices and high persistence in inflation. Boundedly rational agents use a simple univariate linear forecasting rule and correctly forecast the unconditional sample mean and first-order sample autocorrelation. In the long run, agents learn the best univariate linear forecasting rule, without fully recognizing the structure of the economy. The simplicity of behavioral learning equilibria makes coordination of individual expectations on such an aggregate outcome more likely. In a first application, an asset pricing model with AR(1) dividends, a unique behavioral learning equilibrium exists characterized by high persistence and excess volatility, and it is stable under learning. In a second application, the New Keynesian Phillips curve, multiple equilibria co-exist, learning exhibits path dep endence and inflation may switch between low and high persistence regimes.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 13-014/II.

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Date of creation: 14 Jan 2013
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20130014

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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Keywords: Bounded rationality; Stochastic consistent expectations equilibrium; Adaptive learning; Excess volatility; Inflation persistence;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, expectations feedback and almost self-fulfilling equilibria: economic theory, empirical evidence and laboratory experiments," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 406-419, December.
  2. Hommes, C.H., 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Fulfilling Equilibria," CeNDEF Working Papers 13-17, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  3. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Reflexivity, Expectations Feedback and almost Self-fulfilling Equilibria: Economic Theory, Empirical Evidence and Laboratory Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-206/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  4. Cars Hommes, 2013. "Behaviorally Rational Expectations and Almost Self-Ful lling Equilibria," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-204/II, Tinbergen Institute.
  5. Dudek, Maciej K., 2014. "Living in an imaginary world that looks real," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 209-223.

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