Managing Sales Forecasters
AbstractA Forecast Support System (FSS), which generates sales forecasts, is a sophisticated business analytical tool that can help to improve targeted business decisions. Many companies use such a tool, although at the same time they may allow managers to quote their own forecasts. These sales forecasters (managers) can take the FSS output as their input, but they can also fully ignore the FSS out- comes. We propose a methodology that allows to evaluate the forecast accuracy of these managers, relative to the FSS, while taking aboard latent variation across managers' behavior. We show that the results, here for a large Germany-based pharmaceutical company, can in fact be used to manage the sales forecasters by giving clear-cut recommendations for improvement.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 12-131/III.
Date of creation: 03 Dec 2012
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Forecast Support System; Sales forecasters; Forecast accuracy;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- M11 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Business Administration - - - Production Management
- M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Konstantinos Nikolopoulos, 2008. "On the accuracy of judgmental interventions on Statistical Forecasts," Working Papers, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics 0021, University of Peloponnese, Department of Economics.
- Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul & Lawrence, Michael & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos, 2009. "Effective forecasting and judgmental adjustments: an empirical evaluation and strategies for improvement in supply-chain planning," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 3-23.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2000. "Improving the voluntary integration of statistical forecasts and judgment," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 85-99.
- Bunn, Derek W. & Salo, Ahti A., 1996. "Adjustment of forecasts with model consistent expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 163-170, March.
- Franses, Philip Hans & Legerstee, Rianne, 2009. "Properties of expert adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 35-47.
- Philip Hans Franses & Rianne Legerstee, 2010. "Do experts' adjustments on model-based SKU-level forecasts improve forecast quality?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(3), pages 331-340.
- Lawrence, Michael & Goodwin, Paul & O'Connor, Marcus & Onkal, Dilek, 2006. "Judgmental forecasting: A review of progress over the last 25 years," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 493-518.
- Goodwin, Paul, 2002. "Integrating management judgment and statistical methods to improve short-term forecasts," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 127-135, April.
- Syntetos, Aris A. & Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos & Boylan, John E. & Fildes, Robert & Goodwin, Paul, 2009. "The effects of integrating management judgement into intermittent demand forecasts," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 72-81, March.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.