A Forty Year Assessment of Forecasting the Boat Race
AbstractWe study the forecasting of the yearly outcome of the Boat Race between Cambridge and Oxford. We compare the relative performance of different dynamic models for forty years of forecasting. Each model is defined by a binary density conditional on a latent signal that is specified as a dynamic stochastic process with fixed predictors. The out-of-sample predictive ability of the models is compared between each other by using a variety of loss functions and predictive ability tests. We find that the model with its latent signal specified as an autoregressive process cannot be outperformed by the other specifications. This model is able to correctly forecast 30 out of 40 outcomes of the Boat Race.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 12-110/III.
Date of creation: 23 Oct 2012
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Binary time series; Predictive ability; Non-Gaussian state space model;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-11-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-11-03 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2012-11-03 (Econometric Time Series)
- NEP-FOR-2012-11-03 (Forecasting)
- NEP-ORE-2012-11-03 (Operations Research)
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