Predicting Time-Varying Parameters with Parameter-Driven and Observation-Driven Models
AbstractWe study whether and when parameter-driven time-varying parameter models lead to forecasting gains over observation-driven models. We consider dynamic count, intensity, duration, volatility and copula models, including new specifications that have not been studied earlier in the literature. In an extensive Monte Carlo study, we find that observation-driven generalised autoregressive score (GAS) models have similar predictive accuracy to correctly specified parameter-driven models. In most cases, differences in mean squared errors are smaller than 1% and model confidence sets have low power when comparing these two alternatives. We also find that GAS models outperform many familiar observation-driven models in terms of forecasting accuracy. The results point to a class of observation-driven models with comparable forecasting ability to parameter-driven models, but lower computational complexity.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 12-020/4.
Date of creation: 06 Mar 2012
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Generalised autoregressive score model; Importance sampling; Model confidence set; Nonlinear state space model; Weibull-gamma mixture;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2012-03-14 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2012-03-14 (Econometrics)
- NEP-FOR-2012-03-14 (Forecasting)
- NEP-ORE-2012-03-14 (Operations Research)
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