Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management
AbstractWhen debt levels approach critical levels, tax payers may revolt against the associated debtservice burden. Funding problems may arise in capital markets when lenders anticipate such revolts and refuse to participate in debt auctions. We provide a stochastic framework to assess whether such problems may arise and argue that the key to fiscal sustainability in a stochastic environment is a feedback rule from debt level shocks back to corresponding adjustments in the primary surplus. We show that such feedback rules narrow future distributions of debt-output ratios and so reduce crisis probabilities. We apply the methodology to Dutch debt and deficit data spanning two centuries. Our results strongly argue for the incorporation of rules stipulating tightening fiscal policy whenever debt stocks exceed previously agreed upon targets (like in the original Eurozone Stability pact).
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 12-011/2.
Date of creation: 12 Feb 2012
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deficits; debt sustainability; fiscal rules;
Other versions of this item:
- Sweder Wijnbergen & Alexander France, 2012. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 Years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management," De Economist, Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 219-236, September.
- E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
- H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
- H68 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt
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NBER Working Papers
9908, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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