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Long-Run vs. Short-Run Perspectives on Consumer Scheduling: Evidence from a Revealed-Preference Experiment among Peak-Hour Road Commuters

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Author Info

  • Stefanie Peer

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Erik Verhoef

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Jasper Knockaert

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Paul Koster

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Yin-Yen Tseng

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Theoretical and empirical studies of consumer scheduling behavior usually ignore that consumers have more flexibility to adjust their schedule in the long run than in the short run. We are able to distinguish between long-run choices of travel routines and short-run choices of departure times due to an extensive panel dataset of commuters who participate in a real-life peak avoidance experiment. We find that the participants, who obtain a monetary reward for not traveling along a camera-observed highway link during the morning peak, value travel time higher in the long-run context compared to the short run, as changes in travel time are more permanent and can be exploited better through the adjustment of routines. Schedule delays are, in contrast, valued higher inthe short-run model, reflecting that scheduling restrictions are typically more binding in the short run. Since the short-run and the long-run shadow prices di er by factors ranging from 2 to 5 in our basic model, our results may have substantial impacts on optimal choices for transport policies such as pricing and investment.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-181/3.

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Date of creation: 22 Dec 2011
Date of revision: 16 May 2012
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110181

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: scheduling model; travel routines; departure time choices; long-run vs. short-run; information; travel time expectations; revealed preference data; reward experiment;

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  1. Arnott, Richard & de Palma, Andre & Lindsey, Robin, 1993. "A Structural Model of Peak-Period Congestion: A Traffic Bottleneck with Elastic Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(1), pages 161-79, March.
  2. Van Ommeren, Jos & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2009. "Workers' marginal costs of commuting," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 38-47, January.
  3. Noland, Robert B. & Small, Kenneth A. & Koskenoja, Pia Maria & Chu, Xuehao, 1998. "Simulating travel reliability," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(5), pages 535-564, September.
  4. Greene, William H. & Hensher, David A., 2003. "A latent class model for discrete choice analysis: contrasts with mixed logit," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 681-698, September.
  5. Vickrey, William S, 1969. "Congestion Theory and Transport Investment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 59(2), pages 251-60, May.
  6. Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas & Franklin, Joel, 2012. "Valuations of travel time variability in scheduling versus mean-variance models," Working papers in Transport Economics 2012:2, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
  7. DeSerpa, A C, 1971. "A Theory of the Economics of Time," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 81(324), pages 828-46, December.
  8. Stefanie Peer & Jasper Knockaert & Paul Koster & Yin-Yen Tseng & Erik Verhoef, 2011. "Door-to-Door Travel Times in RP Departure Time Choice Models: An Approximation Method based on GPS," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-180/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 17 May 2012.
  9. Racine, Jeff & Li, Qi, 2004. "Nonparametric estimation of regression functions with both categorical and continuous data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 99-130, March.
  10. Qi Li & Jeffrey Scott Racine, 2006. "Nonparametric Econometrics: Theory and Practice," Economics Books, Princeton University Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 8355.
  11. Yin-Yen Tseng & Jasper Knockaert & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Stick to the Plan? A Revealed-Preference Study of Behavioural Impacts of Traffic Information," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-068/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  12. Ommeren, Jos van & Berg, Gerard J. van den & Gorter, Cees, 1998. "Estimating the marginal willingness to pay for commuting," Serie Research Memoranda 0046, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  13. Small, Kenneth A, 1982. "The Scheduling of Consumer Activities: Work Trips," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 467-79, June.
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