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Conditional Probabilities and Contagion Measures for Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk

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Author Info

  • Xin Zhang

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Bernd Schwaab

    (European Central Bank)

  • Andre Lucas

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

We propose a novel empirical framework to assess the likelihood of joint and conditional failure for Euro area sovereigns. Our model is based on a dynamic skewed-t copulawhich captures all the salient features of the data, including skewed and heavy-tailed changes in the price of CDS protection against sovereign default, as well as dynamicvolatilities and correlations to ensure that failure dependence can increase in times of stress. We apply the framework to Euro area sovereign CDS spreads from 2008 tomid-2011. Our results reveal significant time-variation in risk dependence and considerable spill-over effects in the likelihood of sovereign failures. We also investigatedistress dependence around a key policy announcement by Euro area heads of state on May 9, 2010, and demonstrate the importance of capturing higher-order time-varyingmoments during times of crisis for the correct assessment of interacting risks.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-176/2/DSF29.

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Date of creation: 13 Dec 2011
Date of revision: 28 Jun 2012
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110176

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: sovereign credit risk; higher order moments; time-varying parameters; financial stability;

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References

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  1. Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
  2. Renzo G. Avesani & Jing Li & Antonio Garcia Pascual, 2006. "A New Risk Indicator and Stress Testing tool," IMF Working Papers 06/105, International Monetary Fund.
  3. Creal, Drew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, André, 2011. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 552-563.
  4. Xin Huang & Hao Zhou & Haibin Zhu, 2009. "A framework for assessing the systemic risk of major financial institutions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2009-37, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  5. Xin Zhang & Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2011. "Modeling Dynamic Volatilities and Correlations under Skewness and Fat Tails," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-078/2/DSF22, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  7. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas, 2013. "Generalized Autoregressive Score Models With Applications," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 777-795, 08.
  8. Sturzenegger, Federico & Zettelmeyer, Jeromin, 2008. "Haircuts: Estimating investor losses in sovereign debt restructurings, 1998-2005," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 780-805, September.
  9. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
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Cited by:
  1. D'Agostino, Antonello & Ehrmann, Michael, 2013. "The pricing of G7 sovereign bond spreads: the times, they are a-changin," Working Paper Series 1520, European Central Bank.
  2. Jan Willem van den End & Marco Hoeberichts, 2012. "The interaction between the central bank and government in tail risk scenarios," DNB Working Papers 352, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
  3. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2013. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt crisis," Working Paper Series 1558, European Central Bank.
  4. Xisong Jin & Francisco Nadal De Simone, 2013. "Banking Systemic Vulnerabilities: A Tail-risk Dynamic CIMDO Approach," BCL working papers 82, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  5. Carmen Broto & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2013. "Disentangling contagion among sovereign cds spreads during the european debt crisis," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 1314, Banco de Espa�a.
  6. Alter, Adrian & Beyer, Andreas, 2014. "The dynamics of spillover effects during the European sovereign debt turmoil," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 134-153.
  7. Tola, Albi & Wälti, Sébastien, 2012. "Deciphering financial contagion in the euro area during the crisis," MPRA Paper 49251, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  8. Radev, Deyan, 2013. "Systemic risk and sovereign debt in the Euro area," SAFE Working Paper Series 37, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.

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