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Which Industries are shifting the Beveridge Curve?

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Author Info

  • Regis Barnichon

    (CREi)

  • Michael Elsby

    (University of Edinburgh)

  • Bart Hobijn

    (Fed. Reserve Bank San Francisco, and VU University Amsterdam)

  • Aysegul Sahin

    (Federal Reserve Bank of New York)

Abstract

The negative relationship between the unemployment rate and the job openings rate, known as the Beveridge curve, has been relatively stable in the U.S. over the last decade. Since the summer of 2009, in spite of firms reporting more job openings, the U.S. unemployment rate has not declined in line with the Beveridge curve. We decompose the recent deviation from the Beveridge curve into different parts using data from the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS). We find that most of the current deviation from the Beveridge curve can be attributed to a shortfall in hires per vacancy. This shortfall is broad-based across all industries and is particularly pronounced in construction, transportation, trade, and utilities, and leisure and hospitality. Construction alone accounts for more than half of the Beveridge curve gap.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-157/3.

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Date of creation: 07 Nov 2011
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110157

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

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Keywords: Beveridge Curve; job openings; measurement; search frictions;

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References

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  1. Steven J. Davis & R. Jason Faberman & John C. Haltiwanger, 2010. "The Establishment-Level Behavior of Vacancies and Hiring," NBER Working Papers 16265, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobjin & Aysegül Sahin, 2010. "The labor market in the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2010-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  3. Michael Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin, 2008. "Unemployment Dynamics in the OECD," NBER Working Papers 14617, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert Shimer, 2012. "Reassessing the Ins and Outs of Unemployment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(2), pages 127-148, April.
  5. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2010. "What drives movements in the unemployment rate? a decomposition of the Beveridge curve," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2010-48, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  6. Bruce Fallick & Charles A. Fleischman, 2004. "Employer-to-employer flows in the U.S. labor market: the complete picture of gross worker flows," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-34, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
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Cited by:
  1. Peter Diamond, 2013. "Cyclical Unemployment, Structural Unemployment," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 61(3), pages 410-455, August.
  2. Michael W.L. Elsby & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert G. Valletta, 2011. "The Labor Market in the Great Recession: An Update," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-173/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Bart Hobijn & Aysegül Sahin, 2012. "Beveridge curve shifts across countries since the Great Recession," Working Paper Series 2012-24, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Bonthuis, Boele & Jarvis, Valerie & Vanhala, Juuso, 2013. "What’s going on behind the euro area Beveridge curve(s)?," Working Paper Series 1586, European Central Bank.
  5. Jinzhu Chen & Bharat Trehan & Prakash Kannan & Prakash Loungani, 2011. "New Evidenceon Cyclical and Structural Sources of Unemployment," IMF Working Papers 11/106, International Monetary Fund.
  6. Mary Daly & Bart Hobijn & Rob Valletta, 2011. "The recent evolution of the natural rate of unemployment," Working Paper Series 2011-05, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  7. Diamond, Peter A., 2010. "Unemployment, Vacancies, Wages," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2010-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
  8. Edward P. Lazear & James R. Spletzer, 2012. "The United States Labor Market: Status Quo or A New Normal?," Working Papers 12-28, Center for Economic Studies, U.S. Census Bureau.
  9. David R. Howell & Bert M. Azizoglu, 2011. "Unemployment Benefits and Work Incentives: The U.S. Labor Market in the Great Recession (revised)," Working Papers wp257_revised, Political Economy Research Institute, University of Massachusetts at Amherst.
  10. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2013. "Labor Market Heterogeneity and the Aggregate Matching Function," Working Papers 727, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
  11. Plamen Nenov, 2013. "Regional Mismatch and Labor Reallocation in an Equilibrium Model of Migration," 2013 Meeting Papers 565, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  12. Mary Daly & Bart Hobijn & Aysegul Sahin & Robert Valletta, 2011. "A Rising Natural Rate of Unemployment: Transitory or Permanent?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-160/3, Tinbergen Institute.
  13. Bart Hobijn, 2012. "The industry-occupation mix of U.S. job openings and hires," Working Paper Series 2012-09, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.

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