Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

A Multi-Scenario Forecast of Urban Change: A Study on Urban Growth in the Algarve


Author Info

  • Eric de Noronha Vaz

    (Universidade Nova de Lisboa)

  • Peter Nijkamp

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Marco Painho

    (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa)

  • Mario Gaetano

    (Universidade NOVA de Lisboa)


The Algarve region in Portugal is often considered as one of the most appealing regions for tourism in the country. Its attractive location and moderate climate have since the mid-1960s brought increasing economic prosperity. As a result of the development of mass tourism, available land-use resources were widely exploited to create an integrated tourist industry. This region has shown an increasing loss of ecosystems resulting from the expansion of urban areas. This has also been accompanied by a significant abandonment of rural areas and hinterlands, leading to loss of agriculture and other rural activities. Clearly, urban growth needs considerable attention in the context of sustainable development, as often peri-urban areas with fragile ecosystems are becoming increasingly vulnerable. This paper aims to develop and apply key tools to quantify the changes of land use and how this affects the regional spatial scope by using multi-temporal inventorying an d accounting of land-use change matrices. Using Cellular Automata and a combined interpretation of CORINE Land Cover Data, it converges into a qualitative to quantitative interpretation of land use change by means of Multi-Criteria Evaluation. Finally, our analysis to identify the scenario with the best fit, based on the evolution of the actual 2006 land cover, enabled us to build a future urban growth model for 2020 which was quantitatively assessed. The outcome suggests a picture of continuing growth for the region of the Algarve within the framework of current policies and regressive spatial trends.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-142/3.

as in new window
Date of creation: 04 Oct 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110142

Contact details of provider:
Web page:

Related research

Keywords: Urban growth; Algarve; CORINE Land Cover; Scenario modelling;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:


References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cohen, Barney, 2004. "Urban Growth in Developing Countries: A Review of Current Trends and a Caution Regarding Existing Forecasts," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 23-51, January.
  2. Roberta Capello & Peter Nijkamp, 2003. "The theoretical and methodological toolbox of urban economics: from and towards where?," ERSA conference papers ersa03p510, European Regional Science Association.
  3. Andrew Moravcsik, 1993. "Preferences and Power in the European Community: A Liberal Intergovernmentalist Approach," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(4), pages 473-524, December.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)


Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Vaz, Eric & Aversa, Joseph, 2013. "A Graph Theory Approach for Geovisualization of Anthropogenic Land Use Change: An Application to Lisbon," Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, CIEO-Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, University of Algarve, vol. 1(4), pages 254-264.
  2. Karima Kourtit & Jan M�hlmann & Peter Nijkamp & Jan Rouwendal, 2013. "The Spatial Distribution of Creative Industries and Cultural Heritage in The Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-195/VIII, Tinbergen Institute, revised 29 Jan 2014.
  3. Vaz, Eric & Buckland, Amy & Worthington, Kevin, 2013. "A Regional Spatial-retrofitting Approach (RSRA) to Geovisualise Regional Urban Growth: An Application to the Golden Horseshoe in Canada," Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, CIEO-Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, University of Algarve, vol. 1(4), pages 229-240.
  4. Gonzalez-Duque, Jose Antonio & Panagopoulos, Thomas, 2013. "Evaluation of the Urban Green Infrastructure using Landscape Modules, GIS and a Population Survey: Linking Environmental with Social Aspects in Studying and Managing Urban Forests," Journal of Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, CIEO-Research Centre for Spatial and Organizational Dynamics, University of Algarve, vol. 1(2), pages 82-95.


This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.


Access and download statistics


When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110142. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.