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Regional Population-Employment Dynamics across Different Sectors of the Economy

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Author Info

  • Thomas de Graaff

    (VU University Amsterdam, Amsterdam, The Netherlands)

  • Frank G. van Oort

    (Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, The Hague, and Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands)

  • Raymond J.G.M. Florax

    (VU University Amsterdam; d Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN, United States)

Abstract

An important subset of the literature on agglomeration externalities hypothesizes thatintrasectoral and intersectoral relations are endogenously determined in models of localand regional economic growth. Remarkably, structural adjustment models describing thespatio-temporal dynamics of population and employment levels or growth traditionally donot include intersectoral economic dynamics. This paper argues and shows that allowingfor economic linkages across sectors in these models adds considerable value, especially inforecasting. An econometric model of population-employment dynamics in which sectoralvariations in economic development are explicitly taken into account is applied to a largeurban planning policy proposal in The Netherlands. The empirical analyses suggest thatpopulation dynamics are largely exogenous, population changes drive employment in particular in the industry and retail sectors, and employment in all sectors depends strongly onintersectoral dynamics. Intersectoral dynamics appear as important drivers of regional sectoral employment changes; they are even more important than population changes, and theireffect shows up clearly even within the Dutch institutional context where strict regulatoryhousing and planning restrictions are enforced.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-129/3.

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Date of creation: 15 Sep 2011
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110129

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Spatial planning; population-employment dynamics; sectoral decomposition; agglomeration externalities; spatial econometrics;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Simon Choi & Changkeun Park & JiYoung Park, 2014. "A spatio-temporal analysis of population and employment growth for Southern California," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 19-40, January.
  2. Wouter Jacobs & Hans R.A. Koster & Frank van Oort, 2012. "Co-agglomeration of Knowledge-Intensive Business Services and Multinational Enterprises," Papers in Evolutionary Economic Geography (PEEG) 1225, Utrecht University, Section of Economic Geography, revised Dec 2012.
  3. van den Heuvel, Frank P. & Rivera, Liliana & van Donselaar, Karel H. & de Jong, Ad & Sheffi, Yossi & de Langen, Peter W. & Fransoo, Jan C., 2014. "Relationship between freight accessibility and logistics employment in US counties," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 91-105.

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