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Modeling Dynamic Volatilities and Correlations under Skewness and Fat Tails

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Author Info

  • Xin Zhang

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Drew Creal

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Siem Jan Koopman

    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Andre Lucas

    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

We propose a new model for dynamic volatilities and correlations of skewed and heavy-tailed data. Our model endows the Generalized Hyperbolic distribution with time-varying parameters driven by the score of the observation density function. The key novelty in our approach is the fact that the skewed and fat-tailed shape of the distribution directly affects the dynamic behavior of the time-varying parameters. It distinguishes our approach from familiar alternatives such as the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity model and the dynamic conditional correlation model where distributional assumptions affect the likelihood but not the parameter dynamics. We present a modified expectation-maximization algorithm to estimate the model. Simulated and empirical evidence shows that the model outperforms its close competitors if skewness and kurtosis are relevant features of the data.

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File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/11078.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-078/2/DSF22.

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Date of creation: 13 May 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110078

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Dynamic conditional correlations; Generalized Hyperbolic distributions; Observation driven models;

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References

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  1. Mencía, Javier & Sentana, Enrique, 2005. "Estimation and Testing of Dynamic Models with Generalized Hyperbolic Innovations," CEPR Discussion Papers 5177, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  2. Engle, Robert F. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Multivariate Simultaneous Generalized ARCH," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(01), pages 122-150, February.
  3. Nelson, Daniel B & Foster, Dean P, 1994. "Asymptotic Filtering Theory for Univariate ARCH Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(1), pages 1-41, January.
  4. Asai, Manabu & McAleer, Michael, 2009. "The structure of dynamic correlations in multivariate stochastic volatility models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2), pages 182-192, June.
  5. BAUWENS, Luc & LAURENT, Sébastien, . "A new class of multivariate skew densities, with application to generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity models," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1793, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  6. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2008. "A General Framework for Observation Driven Time-Varying Parameter Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-108/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  7. Boswijk, H.P. & Weide, R. van der, 2006. "Wake me up before you GO-GARCH," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
  8. Engle, Robert, 2002. "Dynamic Conditional Correlation: A Simple Class of Multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(3), pages 339-50, July.
  9. Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2010. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-032/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  10. repec:dgr:uvatin:2006079 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. Fiorentini, Gabriele & Sentana, Enrique & Calzolari, Giorgio, 2003. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference in Multivariate Conditionally Heteroscedastic Dynamic Regression Models with Student t Innovations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 21(4), pages 532-46, October.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Andre Lucas & Bernd Schwaab & Xin Zhang, 2013. "Measuring Credit Risk in a Large Banking System: Econometric Modeling and Empirics," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-063/IV/DSF56, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 May 2013.
  2. Francisco Blasques & Siem Jan Koopman & Andre Lucas, 2012. "Stationarity and Ergodicity of Univariate Generalized Autoregressive Score Processes," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-059/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  3. Harvey, Andrew & Sucarrat, Genaro, 2014. "EGARCH models with fat tails, skewness and leverage," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 320-338.
  4. Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2013. "Conditional and joint credit risk," Working Paper Series 1621, European Central Bank.
  5. repec:dgr:uvatin:2013063 is not listed on IDEAS
  6. repec:dgr:uvatin:2011176 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Xin Zhang & Bernd Schwaab & Andre Lucas, 2011. "Conditional Probabilities and Contagion Measures for Euro Area Sovereign Default Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 11-176/2/DSF29, Tinbergen Institute, revised 28 Jun 2012.
  8. Lucas, André & Schwaab, Bernd & Zhang, Xin, 2013. "Conditional euro area sovereign default risk," Working Paper Series 269, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).

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