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Fiscal Sustainability, Volatility and Oil Wealth: A Stochastic Analysis of Fiscal Spending Rules

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Author Info

  • Sweder van Wijnbergen

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Nina Budina

    (IMF)

Abstract

Whether fiscal policy is sustainable depends on a government's future revenue and expenditure streams, both of which are highly uncertain. In commodity-rich countries, this problem is intensified by unpredictable and volatile commodity prices. We show how spending rules for oil income and non-oil primary deficits interact and influence the stochastic distribution of future debt stocks and demonstrate the variance reducing impact of feedback rules for primary deficits in a case study of oil-and-gas exporter Azerbaijan.

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File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/11068.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-068/2.

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Date of creation: 15 Apr 2011
Date of revision: 16 May 2011
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110068

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: volatility; oil wealth; fiscal sustainability;

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  1. Aghion, Philippe & Bacchetta, Philippe & Ranciere, Romain & Rogoff, Kenneth S., 2009. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Scholarly Articles 12490419, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  2. Philippe Aghion & Philippe Baccheta & Romain Ranciere & Kenneth Rogoff, 2006. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Productivity Growth: The Role of Financial Development," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 06-16, Swiss Finance Institute.
  3. Delfin S. Go & John Page, 2008. "Africa at a Turning Point? : Growth, Aid, and External Shocks," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 6421, October.
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