Sovereign Default and the Stability of Inflation Targeting Regimes
AbstractWe analyse the impact of interactions between monetary and fiscal policy on macroeconomic stability. We find that in the presence of sovereign default beliefs a monetary policy, which aims to stabilize inflation through an active interest rate policy, will destabilize the economy if the feedback from debt surprises back to the primary surplus is too weak. This result, which relies on endogenous changes in the default premium, is at odds with the results in an environment without default risk, where an active monetarypolicy guarantees macroeconomic stability. The results are highly relevant for the design of fiscal and monetary policy in emerging markets where sovereign credibility is not well established. Recent debt developments in Western Europe and in the US suggest these results might become relevant for more mature financial markets too.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-064/2/ DSF20.
Date of creation: 12 Apr 2011
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Inflation targeting; fiscal-monetary policy interactions; sovereign default risk; foreign debt;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
- E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-04-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-04-23 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-04-23 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-04-23 (Monetary Economics)
You can help add them by filling out this form.
CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
- Keith Kuester & Gernot J. Mueller & Giancarlo Corsetti & AndrÃ© Meier, 2012.
"Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability,"
IMF Working Papers
12/33, International Monetary Fund.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2013. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages F99-F132, 02.
- Corsetti, Giancarlo & Kuester, Keith & Meier, André & Müller, Gernot, 2012. "Sovereign Risk, Fiscal Policy, and Macroeconomic Stability," CEPR Discussion Papers 8779, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Giancarlo Corsetti & Keith Kuester & Andre Meier & Gernot J. Muller, 2011. "Soverign risk and the effects of fiscal retrenchment in deep recessions," Working Papers 11-43, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
- Sweder Wijnbergen & Alexander France, 2012.
"Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 Years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management,"
Springer, vol. 160(3), pages 219-236, September.
- Sweder van Wijnbergen & Alexander France, 2012. "Assessing Debt Sustainability in a Stochastic Environment: 200 years of Dutch Debt and Deficit Management," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 12-011/2, Tinbergen Institute.
- Alho, Kari E.O., 2011. "How to Restore Sustainability of the Euro?," Discussion Papers 1259, The Research Institute of the Finnish Economy.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.