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Modeling and Estimation of Synchronization in Multistate Markov-Switching Models

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Author Info

  • Cem Cakmakli

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Richard Paap

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

  • Dick J.C. van Dijk

    (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper develops a Markov-Switching vector autoregressive model that allows for imperfect synchronization of cyclical regimes in multiple variables, due to phase shifts of a single common cycle. The model has three key features: (i) the amount of phase shift can be different across regimes (as well as across variables), (ii) it allows the cycle to consist of any number of regimes J is larger than or equal to 2, and (iii) it allows for regime-dependent volatilities and correlations. In an empirical application to monthly returns on size-based stock portfolios, a three-regime model with asymmetric phase shifts and regime-dependent heteroscedasticity is found to characterize the joint distribution of returns most adequately. While large- and small-cap portfolios switch contemporaneously into boom and crash regimes, the large-cap portfolio leads the small-cap portfolio for switches to a moderate regime by a month.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 11-002/4.

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Date of creation: 06 Jan 2011
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20110002

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: imperfect synchronization; phase shifts; regime-switching models; Bayesian analysis;

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References

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  1. Perez-Quiros, Gabriel & Timmermann, Allan, 2001. "Business cycle asymmetries in stock returns: Evidence from higher order moments and conditional densities," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 259-306, July.
  2. Marco Del Negro & Christopher Otrok, 2008. "Dynamic factor models with time-varying parameters: measuring changes in international business cycles," Staff Reports 326, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  3. Gabriel Perez-Quiros & Allan Timmermann, 2000. "Firm Size and Cyclical Variations in Stock Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1229-1262, 06.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Cem Cakmakli & Richard Paap & Dick van Dijk, 2012. "Measuring and Predicting Heterogeneous Recessions," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1206, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  2. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Extended Phillips Curve Models with non-filtered Data," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1321, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  3. Nalan Basturk & Cem Cakmakli & Pinar Ceyhan & Herman K. van Dijk, 2013. "Posterior-Predictive Evidence on US Inflation using Phillips Curve Models with Non-Filtered Time Series," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-011/III, Tinbergen Institute.

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