Pensions, Debt and Inflation Risk in a Monetary Union
AbstractThis paper investigates the international spillovers of government debt and the associated risk of inflation within a monetary union when countries have different pension systems. I use a stochastic two-country two-period overlapping-generations model, where one country has PAYG pensions and the other country has funded pensions. The paper shows that the PAYG country can shift part of its long-term debt burden to the funded country. Moreover, the PAYG country gains from unexpected inflation at the cost of the funded country. In response to these conflicting interests about inflation, inflation risk may rise with the level of debt in the PAYG country. Higher inflation risk harms both countries. Actually, in contrast to the debt burden, the PAYG country cannot share the negative effects of a rise in inflation risk with the funded country. The scenarios analysed might be especially relevant for the years to come.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 10-109/2.
Date of creation: 29 Oct 2010
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spillovers; pensions; debt; inflation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
- G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
- G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2011-02-26 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2011-02-26 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2011-02-26 (Monetary Economics)
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