Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model tells us
AbstractUsing Italian data, we estimate an option value model to quantify the effectof financial incentives on retirement choices. As far as we know, this isthe first empirical study to estimate the conditional multiple-years modelput forward by Stock and Wise (1990). This implies that we account fordynamic self-selection bias. We also present an extended version of thismodel in which the marginal value of leisure is random.The models yield plausible estimates of the preference parameters. Dynamicself-selection results in a considerable downward bias in the estimate of themarginal utility of leisure. We perform a simulation study to gauge theeffects of a dramatic pension reform. Underestimation of the value of leisuretranslates into sizeable over-prediction of the impact of reform. For thefemale sample, the model is able to predict almost perfectly the age-specifichazard rates. For the male sample, we obtain a good fit. Results for malesshould, however, be interpreted with caution since we are not able to fullycorrect for dynamic self-selection bias.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 10-102/3.
Date of creation: 14 Oct 2010
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retirement; option value model; dynamic self-selection; unobserved preference heterogeneity;
Other versions of this item:
- Michele Belloni & Rob Alessie, 2013. "Retirement Choices in Italy: What an Option Value Model Tells Us," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 75(4), pages 499-527, 08.
- Michele Belloni & Rob Alessie, 2010. "Retirement choices in Italy: what an option value model tells us," CeRP Working Papers 92, Center for Research on Pensions and Welfare Policies, Turin (Italy).
- J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies
- H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
- C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Longitudinal Data; Spatial Time Series
- C34 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models
- C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-AGE-2011-02-26 (Economics of Ageing)
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-EUR-2011-02-26 (Microeconomic European Issues)
- NEP-LAB-2011-02-26 (Labour Economics)
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