A Rank Dependent Scheduling Model
AbstractThis paper proposes an analytical framework for scheduling decisions of road travelers that takes into account probability weighting using rank dependent utility theory. The fundamental difference with the standard scheduling model based on expected utility is that the probabilities of arrivals are treated in a non-linear way. This paper shows how scheduling decisions are affected by the weighted probabilities of the traveler. We derive the costs of non-optimal chosen departure times because of probability weighting and show that if the parameterized probability weighting function issimilar to what has been found for gambling, the costs of probability weighting for morningpeak car travelers are around 3 per cent. For the full range of parameters tested, we find costs inthe range of 0-24 percent of total travel costs.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 10-069/3.
Date of creation: 16 Jul 2010
Date of revision: 26 Aug 2010
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scheduling model; value of reliability; rank dependent utility;
Other versions of this item:
- R40 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - General
- R41 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Transportation: Demand, Supply, and Congestion
- R42 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Government and Private Investment Analysis; Road Maintenance; Transportation Planning
- R49 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Transportation Systems - - - Other
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-UPT-2011-02-26 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
- NEP-URE-2011-02-26 (Urban & Real Estate Economics)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- De Borger, Bruno & Fosgerau, Mogens, 2008. "The trade-off between money and travel time: A test of the theory of reference-dependent preferences," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 64(1), pages 101-115, July.
- Gijs Kuilen, 2009. "Subjective Probability Weighting and the Discovered Preference Hypothesis," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 67(1), pages 1-22, July.
- Xiao, Yu & Fukuda, Daisuke, 2013. "On the cost of misperceived travel time variability," MPRA Paper 49737, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Koster, Paul & Kroes, Eric & Verhoef, Erik, 2011.
"Travel time variability and airport accessibility,"
Transportation Research Part B: Methodological,
Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1545-1559.
- Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2013. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 13-056/VIII, Tinbergen Institute.
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