A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations
AbstractThis discussion paper led to a publication in 'Journal of Business & Economic Statistics' , 29(4), 552-63. We propose a new class of observation-driven time-varying parameter models for dynamic volatilities and correlations to handle time series from heavy-tailed distributions. The model adopts generalized autoregressive score dynamics to obtain a time-varying covariance matrix of the multivariate Student's t distribution. The key novelty of our proposed model concerns the weighting of lagged squared innovations for the estimation of future correlations and volatilities. When we account for heavy tails of distributions, we obtain estimates that are more robust to large innovations. The model also admits a representation as a time-varying heavy-tailed copula which is particularly useful if the interest focuses on dependence structures. We provide an empirical illustration for a panel of daily global equity returns. This discussion paper led to a publication in the Journal of Business and Economic Statistics (2011, 29(4) 552-63.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 10-032/2.
Date of creation: 16 Mar 2010
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dynamic dependence; multivariate Student's t distribution; copula;
Other versions of this item:
- Drew Creal & Siem Jan Koopman & AndrÃ© Lucas, 2011. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(4), pages 552-563, October.
- Creal, Drew & Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, AndrÃ©, 2011. "A Dynamic Multivariate Heavy-Tailed Model for Time-Varying Volatilities and Correlations," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 29(4), pages 552-563.
- C10 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - General
- C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models &bull Diffusion Processes
- C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
- C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2011-02-26 (All new papers)
- NEP-ECM-2011-02-26 (Econometrics)
- NEP-ETS-2011-02-26 (Econometric Time Series)
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