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Transmission of Government Spending Shocks in the Euro Area: Time Variation and Driving Forces

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Author Info

  • Markus Kirchner

    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Jacopo Cimadomo

    (European Central Bank)

  • Sebastian Hauptmeier

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

This paper provides new evidence on the effects of government spending shocks and the fiscal transmission mechanism in the euro area for the period 1980-2008. Our contribution is two-fold. First, we investigate changes in the macroeconomic impact of government spending shocks using time-varying structural VAR techniques. The results show that the short-run effectiveness of government spending in stabilizing real GDP and private consumption has increased until the end-1980s but it has decreased thereafter. Moreover, government spending multipliers at longer horizons have declined substantially over the sample period. We also observe a weaker response of real wages and a stronger response of the nominal interest rate to spending shocks. Second, we provide econometric evidence on the driving forces behind the observed time variation of spending multipliers. We find that a higher ratio of credit to households over GDP, a smaller share of government investment and a larger share of public wages over total government spending have led to decreasing contemporaneous multipliers. At the same time, our results indicate that higher government debt-to-GDP ratios have negatively affected long-term multipliers.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 10-021/2.

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Date of creation: 12 Feb 2010
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20100021

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Related research

Keywords: Government spending shocks; Fiscal transmission mechanism; Structural change; Bayesian analysis; Structural vector autoregressions; Time-varying parameter models;

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References

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  1. Eric M. Leeper & Todd B. Walker & Shu-Chun Susan Yang, 2009. "Government Investment and Fiscal Stimulus in the Short and Long Runs," NBER Working Papers 15153, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Antonello D'Agostino & Luca Gambetti & Domenico Giannone, 2013. "Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 82-101, 01.
  3. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2006. "Changing Patterns of Domestic and Cross-Border Fiscal Policy Multipliers in Europe and the US," Working Papers 2006-24, CEPII research center.
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Cited by:
  1. Michal Franta & Jan Libich & Petr Stehlik, 2012. "Tracking Monetary-Fiscal Interactions Across Time and Space," Working Papers 2012/06, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  2. Fabio Canova & Evi Pappa, 2011. "Fiscal policy, pricing frictions and monetary accommodation," Economics Working Papers 1268, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  3. Jacopo Cimadomo & Sebastian Hauptmeier & Sergio Sola, 2011. "Identifying the effects of government spending shocks with and without expected reversal - an approach based on U.S. real-time data," Working Paper Series 1361, European Central Bank.
  4. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-85, September.
  5. Roman Horváth & Michal Franta & Marek Rusnák, 2012. "Evaluating Changes in the Monetary Transmission Mechanism in the Czech Republic," Working Papers IES 2012/11, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Apr 2012.
  6. Michal Franta, 2011. "Identification of Monetary Policy Shocks in Japan Using Sign Restrictions within the TVP-VAR Framework," IMES Discussion Paper Series 11-E-13, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
  7. Giovanni Callegari & Giovanni Melina & Nicoletta Batini, 2012. "Successful Austerity in the United States, Europe and Japan," IMF Working Papers 12/190, International Monetary Fund.
  8. Berg, Tim Oliver, 2011. "Technology news and the U.S. economy: Time variation and structural changes," MPRA Paper 35361, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Rafiq, Sohrab & Zeufack, Albert, 2012. "Fiscal multipliers over the growth cycle : evidence from Malaysia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5982, The World Bank.
  10. Banerjee, A. & Malik, S., 2012. "The changing role of expectations in US monetary policy: A new look using the Livingston Survey," Working papers 376, Banque de France.
  11. Roel Beetsma & Massimo Giuliodori, 2011. "The Effects of Government Purchases Shocks: Review and Estimates for the EU," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 121(550), pages F4-F32, February.
  12. Jan Libich & James Savage & Carl Walsh, 2011. "Monetary–Fiscal Interactions: How to Improve Policy Outcomes?," Economic Papers, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 30(1), pages 1-5, 03.

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