Information Flows around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns
AbstractThis paper describes a forecasting exercise of close-to-open returns on major global stock indices, based on price patterns from foreign markets that have become available overnight. As the close-to-open gap is a scalar response variable to a functional variable, it is natural to focus on functional data analysis. Both parametric and non-parametric modeling strategies are considered, and compared with a simple linear benchmark model. The overall best performing model is nonparametric, suggesting the presence of nonlinear relations between the overnight price patterns and the opening gaps. This effect is mainly due to the European and Asian markets. The North-American and Australian markets appear to be informationally more efficient in that linear models using only the last available information perform well.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 09-107/4.
Date of creation: 19 Nov 2009
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Close-to-open gap forecasting; Functional data analysis; International stock markets; Nonparametric modeling;
Other versions of this item:
- Jan G. De Gooijer & Cees G. H. Diks & Łukasz T. Gątarek, 2012. "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, CEJEME, vol. 4(1), pages 23-44, March.
- De Gooijer, J. & Diks, C.G.H. & Gatarek, L., 2009. "Information Flows Around the Globe: Predicting Opening Gaps from Overnight Foreign Stock Price Patterns," CeNDEF Working Papers 09-13, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance.
- C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- F37 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Finance Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2010-05-15 (All new papers)
- NEP-FOR-2010-05-15 (Forecasting)
- NEP-IFN-2010-05-15 (International Finance)
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