Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login

'Let me dream on!' Anticipatory Emotions and Preference for Timing in Lotteries

Contents:

Author Info

  • Martin Kocher

    (University of Munich)

  • Michal Krawczyk

    (Warsaw University)

  • Frans van Winden

    (CREED, University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

We analyze one of the explanations why people participate in lotteries. Our hypothesis stipulates that part of the value that a unit of money buys in lotteries is consumed before the actual resolution in the form of emotions such as hope. In other words, a person holding a lottery ticket may prefer a delayed resolution of risk due to positive anticipatory emotions. This conjecture is tested in an experiment with real lottery tickets. We show that our theoretical considerations may contribute to explaining empirical puzzles associated with lottery participation, timing of resolution and the spreading of drawings. More specifically, we find that a substantial number of participants prefer delayed resolution, that anticipated thrill is the main variable explaining this choice, that emotions actually experienced during the waiting period are indeed predominantly positive and correlated with predictions. Finally, we find that a great majority prefers to 'spread' chances, that is, to obtain one ticket for each of two drawings rather than two for the same drawing.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/09098.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 09-098/1.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 12 Nov 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20090098

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: lotteries; anticipation; experiment;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. William Chan & Pascal Courty & Li Hao, 2009. "Suspense: Dynamic Incentives in Sports Contests," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 24-46, 01.
  2. Charles Noussair & Ping Wu, 2006. "Risk tolerance in the present and the future: an experimental study," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 401-412.
  3. George Wu & Richard Gonzalez, 1996. "Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1676-1690, December.
  4. Tversky, Amos & Wakker, Peter, 1995. "Risk Attitudes and Decision Weights," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(6), pages 1255-80, November.
  5. Clotfelter, Charles T & Cook, Philip J, 1991. " Lotteries in the Real World," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 227-32, July.
  6. Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
  7. Charles T. Clotfelter & Philip J. Cook, 1993. "Notes: The "Gambler's Fallacy" in Lottery Play," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 39(12), pages 1521-1525, December.
  8. Ido Erev & Ernan Haruvy, 2010. "Two-stage lotteries and the value of unresolved uncertainty," Marketing Letters, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 149-162, June.
  9. Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2001. "Psychological Expected Utility Theory And Anticipatory Feelings," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(1), pages 55-79, February.
  10. Frans Van Winden & Michal Krawczyk & Astrid Hopfensitz, 2010. "Investment, Resolution of Risk, and the Role of Affect," CESifo Working Paper Series 2975, CESifo Group Munich.
  11. Quiggin, John, 1982. "A theory of anticipated utility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 323-343, December.
  12. Emily Haisley & Romel Mostafa & George Loewenstein, 2008. "Myopic risk-seeking: The impact of narrow decision bracketing on lottery play," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 37(1), pages 57-75, August.
  13. Chris Starmer, 2000. "Developments in Non-expected Utility Theory: The Hunt for a Descriptive Theory of Choice under Risk," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 38(2), pages 332-382, June.
  14. George Wu, 1999. "Anxiety and Decision Making with Delayed Resolution of Uncertainty," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 46(2), pages 159-199, April.
  15. Chew, Soo Hong & Ho, Joanna L, 1994. "Hope: An Empirical Study of Attitude toward the Timing of Uncertainty Resolution," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 267-88, May.
  16. Zeelenberg, M. & Pieters, R., 2004. "Consequences of regret aversion in real life: The case of the Dutch postcode lottery," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-126233, Tilburg University.
  17. Thomas Garrett, 2001. "An International Comparison and Analysis of Lotteries and the Distribution of Lottery Expenditures," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(2), pages 213-227.
  18. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Neil Chesters, 2002. "Buying a Dream: Alternative Models of Demand for Lotto," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 40(3), pages 485-496, July.
  19. Loewenstein, George, 1987. "Anticipation and the Valuation of Delayed Consumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 97(387), pages 666-84, September.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
  1. Jieyao Ding, 2011. "What Numbers to Choose for My Lottery Ticket? Behavior Anomalies in the Chinese Online Lottery Market," Working Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2011_23, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
  2. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Krawczyk, Michal & Van Winden, Frans, 2009. "Investment, Resolution of Risk, and the Role of Affect," TSE Working Papers 09-123, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20090098. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.