Visualizing the Invisible: Estimating the New Keynesian Output Gap via a Bayesian Approach
AbstractAs both the natural level of output and the New Keynesian output gap cannot be observed in practice, there is quite some debate on the question how these variables look like in practice. Rather than taking the standard approach of using a time trend or the HP-filter to obtain estimates of these two objects, this paper takes a theoretically more sound route by separating trend from cycle via Bayesian estimation of a New Keynesian model, augmented with an unobserved components model for output. This delivers us with model consistent estimates of both the natural level of output and the New Keynesian output gap. These estimates are then compared with the dominant output gap proxies used in the literature. It turns out that the benefits of using the model-based approach taken in this paper mainly emerge in real time, thereby making this method potentially useful for the conduct of monetary policy.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 09-074/2.
Date of creation: 21 Aug 2009
Date of revision: 26 Mar 2010
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Key words: Bayesian estimation; unobserved components model; New Keynesian model; output gap; New Keynesian Phillips curve;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
- E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
- E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
- E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-09-11 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2009-09-11 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2009-09-11 (Macroeconomics)
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