Starting an R&D Project under Uncertainty
AbstractWe study a two-stage R&D project with an abandonment option. Two types of uncertainty influence the decision to start R&D. Demand uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a proportional increase and decrease in demand. Technical uncertainty is modelled as a lottery between a decrease and increase in the cost to continue R&D. We relate differences in uncertainty to differences in risk premia. We deduct testable hypotheses on the basis of which we empirically analyze the impact of uncertainty on the decision to start an R&D project. Using data for about 4000 German firms in manufacturing and services (CIS IV), our model predictions are strongly confirmed.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 09-044/3.
Date of creation: 15 May 2009
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Investment under uncertainty; R&D; demand uncertainty; technical uncertainty; entry threat;
Other versions of this item:
- Dobbelaere, Sabien & Luttens, Roland Iwan & Peters, Bettina, 2009. "Starting an R&D project under uncertainty," CORE Discussion Papers 2009036, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- S. Dobbelaere & R. I. Luttens & B. Peters, 2009. "Starting an R&D project under uncertainty," Working Papers of Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Ghent University, Belgium 09/585, Ghent University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration.
- Sabien Dobbelaere & Roland Iwan Luttens & Bettina Peters, 2008. "Starting an R&D Project under Uncertainty," DRUID Working Papers 08-09, DRUID, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Industrial Economics and Strategy/Aalborg University, Department of Business Studies.
- D21 - Microeconomics - - Production and Organizations - - - Firm Behavior: Theory
- D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
- L12 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - Monopoly; Monopolization Strategies
- O31 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Innovation and Invention: Processes and Incentives
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2009-07-03 (All new papers)
- NEP-ENT-2009-07-03 (Entrepreneurship)
- NEP-IND-2009-07-03 (Industrial Organization)
- NEP-INO-2009-07-03 (Innovation)
- NEP-MIC-2009-07-03 (Microeconomics)
- NEP-PPM-2009-07-03 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-UPT-2009-07-03 (Utility Models & Prospect Theory)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996.
"The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
- John V. Leahy & Toni M. Whited, 1995. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," NBER Working Papers 4986, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Helen Weeds, 2002.
"Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition,"
Review of Economic Studies,
Oxford University Press, vol. 69(3), pages 729-747.
- Weeds, Helen, 2002. "Strategic Delay in a Real Options Model of R&D Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 69(3), pages 729-47, July.
- Weeds, H., 2000. "Strategic Delay in a Real Optimna Model of R&D Competition," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 576, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
- Dasgupta, Partha & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1980. "Industrial Structure and the Nature of Innovative Activity," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 90(358), pages 266-93, June.
- Farzin, Y.H. & Huisman, K.J.M. & Kort, P.M., 1996.
"Optimal Timing of Technology Adoption,"
1996-72, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
- John Van Reenen & Nick Bloom & Steve Bond, 2006.
"Uncertainty and investment dynamics,"
LSE Research Online Documents on Economics
2645, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
- Nick Bloom & John Van Reenen & Stephen Bond, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," NBER Working Papers 12383, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Nick Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2006. "Uncertainty and Investment Dynamics," CEP Discussion Papers dp0739, Centre for Economic Performance, LSE.
- Robert S. Pindyck, 1992.
"Investments of Uncertain Cost,"
NBER Working Papers
4175, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grenadier, Steven R. & Weiss, Allen M., 1997. "Investment in technological innovations: An option pricing approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 397-416, June.
- Guiso, Luigi & Parigi, Giuseppe, 1996.
"Investment and Demand Uncertainty,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1497, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Howitt, Peter & Griffith, Rachel & Aghion, Philippe & Blundell, Richard & Bloom, Nick, 2005.
"Competition and Innovation: An Inverted-U Relationship,"
4481507, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- Philippe Aghion & Nick Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2005. "Competition and Innovation: An Inverted-U Relationship," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 120(2), pages 701-728, May.
- Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and innovation: an inverted U relationship," IFS Working Papers W02/04, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
- Philippe Aghion & Nicholas Bloom & Richard Blundell & Rachel Griffith & Peter Howitt, 2002. "Competition and Innovation: An Inverted U Relationship," NBER Working Papers 9269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Darby, Julia & Hughes Hallett, Andrew & Ireland, Jonathan & Piscitelli, Laura, 1998.
"The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
1896, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Darby, Julia, et al, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(454), pages C55-67, March.
- Julia Darby & Andrew Hughes Hallett & Jonathan Ireland & Laura Piscitelli, . "The Impact of Exchange Rate Uncertainty on the Level of Investment," ICMM Discussion Papers 49, Department of Economics University of Strathclyde.
- Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996.
"Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries,"
Journal of Industrial Economics,
Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-28, June.
- Vivek Ghosal & Prakash Loungani, 1995. "Product market competition and the impact of price uncertainty on investment: some evidence from U.S. manufacturing industries," International Finance Discussion Papers 517, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Huizinga, John, 1993. "Inflation Uncertainty, Relative Price Uncertainty, and Investment in U.S. Manufacturing," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 521-49, August.
- Lukach, R. & Kort, P.M. & Plasmans, J., 2007.
"Optimal R&D investment strategies under the threat of new technology entry,"
International Journal of Industrial Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 103-119, February.
- Lukach, R. & Kort, P.M. & Plasman, J., 2005. "Optimal R&D investment strategies under the threat of new technology entry," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-148290, Tilburg University.
- Henley, Andrew & Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andy, 2003. "Industry-wide versus firm-specific uncertainty and investment: British company panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 87-92, January.
- John Huizinga, 1993. "Inflation uncertainty, relative price uncertainty, and investment in U.S. manufacturing," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 521-557.
- repec:bla:restud:v:74:y:2007:i:2:p:391-415 is not listed on IDEAS
- Ferderer, J Peter, 1993. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Aggregate Investment Spending: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(1), pages 30-48, February.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.