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Robust Optimization of the Equity Momentum Strategy

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Author Info
Arco van Oord () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Martin Martens () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Herman K. van Dijk () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

Quadratic optimization for asset portfolios often leads to error maximization, with optimizers zooming in on large errors in the predicted inputs, that is, expected returns and risks. The consequence in most cases is a poor real-time performance. In this paper we show how to improve real-time performance of the popular equity momentum strategy with robust optimization in an empirical application involving 1500-2500 US stocks over the period 1963-2006. We also show that popular procedures like Bayes-Stein estimated expected returns, shrinking the covariance matrix and adding weight constraints fail in such a practical case.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 09-011/4.

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Date of creation: 12 Feb 2009
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20090011

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: quadratic optimization; momentum strategy; robust optimization;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References listed on IDEAS
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  2. Pastor, Lubos & Stambaugh, Robert F., 2003. "Liquidity Risk and Expected Stock Returns," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(3), pages 642-685, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  3. Fan, Jianqing & Fan, Yingying & Lv, Jinchi, 2008. "High dimensional covariance matrix estimation using a factor model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 186-197, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Lo, Andrew W & MacKinlay, A Craig, 1990. "When Are Contrarian Profits Due to Stock Market Overreaction?," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 175-205. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. " Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Amihud, Yakov, 2002. "Illiquidity and stock returns: cross-section and time-series effects," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 31-56, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Ravi Jagannathan & Tongshu Ma, 2003. "Risk Reduction in Large Portfolios: Why Imposing the Wrong Constraints Helps," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1651-1684, 08. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  8. Chan, Louis K C & Karceski, Jason & Lakonishok, Josef, 1999. "On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(5), pages 937-74.
  9. Louis K.C. Chan & Jason Karceski & Josef Lakonishok, 1999. "On Portfolio Optimization: Forecasting Covariances and Choosing the Risk Model," NBER Working Papers 7039, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Ledoit, Olivier & Wolf, Michael, 2003. "Improved estimation of the covariance matrix of stock returns with an application to portfolio selection," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(5), pages 603-621, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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