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Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants

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Author Info
Govert E. Bijwaard () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

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Abstract

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining both models, for departure and returning, provides the probability that a specific migrant ends-up in The Netherlands. It also yields a framework for predicting the migration dynamics over the life-cycle. From the obtained insight in the dynamic composition of migrants in the country important policy implications can be derived, including admission procedures for different countries and/or migration motives.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 08-070/4.

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Date of creation: 18 Jul 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20080070

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: return migration; migration dynamics; mover-stayer model;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Edin, Per-Anders & LaLonde, Robert J. & Åslund, Olof, 2000. "Emigration of Immigrants and Measures of Immigrant Assimilation: Evidence from Sweden," Working Paper Series 2000:13, Uppsala University, Department of Economics. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F., 2003. "The Dynamics of Repeat Migration: A Markov Chain Analysis," IZA Discussion Papers 885, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London. [Downloadable!]
  4. Borjas, George J & Bratsberg, Bernt, 1996. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration of the Foreign-Born," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 165-76, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Van den Berg, Gerard J., 2000. "Duration Models: Specification, Identification, and Multiple Durations," MPRA Paper 9446, University Library of Munich, Germany. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Catherine Y. Co & Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2000. "Returns to returning," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 57-79. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Dustmann, Christian, 2000. "Temporary Migration and Economic Assimilation," IZA Discussion Papers 186, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA). [Downloadable!]
  8. Dierx, Adriaan H., 1988. "A life-cycle model of repeat migration," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 383-397, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Peter Schmidt & Ann Dryden Witte, 1989. "Predicting Criminal Recidivism Using "Split Population" Survival Time Models," NBER Working Papers 2445, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  10. Amelie Constant & Douglas S. Massey, 2003. "Self-selection, earnings, and out-migration: A longitudinal study of immigrants to Germany," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 16(4), pages 631-653, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Constant, Amelie & Zimmermann, Klaus F, 2007. "Circular Migration: Counts of Exits and Years Away from the Host Country," CEPR Discussion Papers 6438, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  12. Abbring, Jaap H., 2002. "Stayers versus defecting movers: a note on the identification of defective duration models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 327-331, February. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Lena Nekby, 2006. "The emigration of immigrants, return vs onward migration: evidence from Sweden," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 197-226, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  14. George J. Borjas, 1994. "The Economics of Immigration," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(4), pages 1667-1717, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  15. Dustmann, Christian, 2003. "Return migration, wage differentials, and the optimal migration duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 353-369, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  16. Aslan Zorlu & Joop Hartog, 2001. "Migration and Immigrants: The Case of the Netherlands," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 01-042/3, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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