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Complex Evolutionary Systems in Behavioral Finance

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  • Cars Hommes

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

  • Florian Wagener

    ()
    (University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

Traditional finance is built on the rationality paradigm. This chapter discusses simple models from an alternative approach in which financial markets are viewed as complex evolutionary systems. Agents are boundedly rational and base their investment decisions upon market forecasting heuristics. Prices and beliefs about future prices co-evolve over time with mutual feedback. Strategy choice is driven by evolutionary selection, so that agents tend to adopt strategies that were successful in the past. Calibration of "simple complexity models" with heterogeneous expectations to real financial market data and laboratory experiments with human subjects are also discussed.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 08-054/1.

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Date of creation: 27 May 2008
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20080054

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Keywords: Asset pricing; heterogeneous beliefs; empirical validation; forecasting experiments;

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