A Real Options Perspective on R&D Portfolio Diversification
AbstractThis paper shows that the presence of conditional staging in R&D (Research & Development) has a critical impact on portfolio risk, and changes diversification arguments when a portfolio is constructed. When R&D projects exhibit option-like characteristics, correlation between projects plays a more complicated role than traditional portfolio diversification would suggest. Real option theory argues that research projects with conditional phases have option-like risk and return properties, and are different from unconditional projects. We show that although the risk of a portfolio always depends on the correlation between projects, a portfolio of conditional R&D projects with real option characteristics has fundamentally different risk than a portfolio of unconditional projects. When conditional R&D projects are negatively correlated, portfolio risk is hardly reduced by diversification. When projects are positively correlated, however, diversification is more effective than these tools predict.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 08-003/2.
Date of creation: 15 Jan 2007
Date of revision: 15 May 2009
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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
Real Options; Research & Development (R&D); Risk Management; Monte Carlo Simulation;
Other versions of this item:
- van Bekkum, Sjoerd & Pennings, Enrico & Smit, Han, 2009. "A real options perspective on R&D portfolio diversification," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(7), pages 1150-1158, September.
- van Bekkum, S. & Pennings, H.P.G. & Smit, J.T.J., 2009. "A Real Options Perspective On R&D Portfolio Diversification," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2009-019-STR, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus Uni.
- G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
- G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
- O30 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - General
- O32 - Economic Development, Technological Change, and Growth - - Technological Change; Research and Development; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Management of Technological Innovation and R&D
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2008-02-23 (All new papers)
- NEP-CFN-2008-02-23 (Corporate Finance)
- NEP-INO-2008-02-23 (Innovation)
- NEP-IPR-2008-02-23 (Intellectual Property Rights)
- NEP-PPM-2008-02-23 (Project, Program & Portfolio Management)
- NEP-RMG-2008-02-23 (Risk Management)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
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