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The Effect of Consumers' Expectations in a Booming Housing Market

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Author Info
Jan Rouwendal () (VU University Amsterdam)
Simonetta Longhi (ISER, University of Essex)

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Abstract

Even though economic models have been relatively successful in explaining the long run patterns of house prices, they have more difficulties in explaining short run developments of the housing markets. However, the fact that during such ‘bubbles’ the spatial pattern of house prices, which can mainly be attributed to accessibility differences, usually remains unchanged, suggests that the irrational forces that are presumably responsible for unexplained movements in house prices obey some regularities: they seem to affect the level of house prices, but not their spatial pattern. This suggests that it is worthwhile to consider the explanatory power of psychological variables like those reflecting general (nation wide) feelings of optimism or pessimism. This paper considers the development of Dutch house prices in the years 1999 and 2000, when house prices increased fast. Existing explanations of the long run development of Dutch house prices on the basis of economic fundamentals (notably income and the mortgage interest rate) would suggest a much more modest development of house prices over these years. We also show that commonly used housing market indicators, notably the number of vacancies (houses for sale) and the time on the market, are unable to explain the development of house prices during this period. However, we find a strong relationship between the development of house prices and the Dutch index of consumer confidence.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-078/3.

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Date of creation: 04 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070078

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Related research
Keywords: House Prices Consumer Confidence Bubbles

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
R31 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Production Analysis and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
R21 - Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
D40 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure and Pricing - - - General

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  1. Horowitz, Joel L, 1992. "The Role of the List Price in Housing Markets: Theory and an Econometric Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(2), pages 115-29, April-Jun. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Krainer, John, 2001. "A Theory of Liquidity in Residential Real Estate Markets," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 32-53, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Dennis R. Capozza & Patric H. Hendershott & Charlotte Mack, 2004. "An Anatomy of Price Dynamics in Illiquid Markets: Analysis and Evidence from Local Housing Markets," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 1-32, 03. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  5. Sydney C. Ludvigson, 2004. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 18(2), pages 29-50, Spring. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-37, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  7. Knight, John R & Sirmans, C F & Turnbull, Geoffrey K, 1994. "List Price Signaling and Buyer Behavior in the Housing Market," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 9(3), pages 177-92, November.
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  8. Hill, R. Carter & Sirmans, C. F. & Knight, John R., 1999. "A random walk down main street?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 89-103, January. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Capozza, Dennis R. & Helsley, Robert W., 1989. "The fundamentals of land prices and urban growth," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 295-306, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Karl Case & John Quigley & Robert Shiller, 2005. "Comparing Wealth Effects: The Stock Market versus the Housing Market," Advances in Macroeconomics, Berkeley Electronic Press, vol. 5(1), pages 1235-1235. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  11. Dusansky, Richard & Koc, Cag[combining macron]atay, 2007. "The capital gains effect in the demand for housing," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(2), pages 287-298, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  12. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion And Seller Behavior: Evidence From The Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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