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The Trade and FDI Effects of EMU Enlargement

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  • Jelle Brouwer
  • Richard Paap

    ()

  • Jean-Marie Viaene

    () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)

Abstract

This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced panel data that combine bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries. The results reveal a complementarity between trade and investment and a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depend on the sign of bilateral trade balances. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5% for Poland and 30% for Hungary.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-077/2.

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Date of creation: 04 Oct 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070077

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Related research

Keywords: EMU; exchange rate volatility; foreign investment; trade diversion; vertical integration;

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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Agenor, Pierre-Richard & Aizenman, Joshua, 2008. "Capital Market Imperfections and the Theory of Optimum Currency Areas," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7668j94x, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  2. Tomáš Havránek, 2009. "Rose Effect and the Euro: The Magic is Gone," Working Papers IES 2009/20, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Aug 2009.
  3. Henry Aray & Javier Gardeazabal, 2008. "Going Multinational under Exchange Rate Uncertainty," ThE Papers 08/19, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  4. Belke, Ansgar & Spies, Julia, 2008. "Enlarging the EMU to the East: What Effects on Trade?," IZA Discussion Papers 3647, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Estrella Gómez & Juliette Milgram Baleix, 2012. "EMU impact of on third countries’ exports. A gravity approach," ThE Papers 10/26, Department of Economic Theory and Economic History of the University of Granada..
  6. Stacie Beck & Alexis Chaves, 2011. "The Impacts of Various Taxes on Foreign Direct Investment," Working Papers 11-18, University of Delaware, Department of Economics.
  7. Jes?s Crespo-Cuaresma & Octavio Fern?ndez-Amador, 2010. "Business cycle convergence in EMU: A second look at the second moment," Working Papers 2010-25, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, University of Innsbruck.
  8. Garcia-Fuentes, Pablo A. & Kennedy, P. Lynn & Ferreira, Gustavo F.C., 2013. "U.S. Foreign Direct Investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: A case of Remittances and Market Size," 2013 Annual Meeting, February 2-5, 2013, Orlando, Florida 142985, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
  9. Matthieu Bussière & Jarko Fidrmuc & Bernd Schnatz, 2008. "EU Enlargement and Trade Integration: Lessons from a Gravity Model," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(3), pages 562-576, 08.

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