Jelle Brouwer Richard Paap Jean-Marie Viaene () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Abstract
This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the ten countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. Intuitively, the implementation of a single currency for these countries means replacing several fluctuating currencies by a common currency. This gives rise to both “level” and “risk” effects of reduced currency movements on trade and investment. Another factor is the nature of the link between trade and FDI. This is also important not only because cross-border factor flows are becoming increasingly important, but also the international trade literature has long recognized that cross-border factor flows and trade in goods and services can be substitutes or complements. Given this background, one-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated to examine for these theoretical expectations within a dataset of unbalanced panel data that combines bilateral trade flows among 29 countries and the distribution of outward FDI stocks among these countries (including the 10 new EU members). The data generally cover the period from 1990 to 2004. Our empirical results convincingly support: (i) a complementarity between trade and investment, (ii) a relationship between trade and exchange rate volatility that depends on the sign of bilateral trade balances, (iii) a positive effect of EU on trade and investment, and (iv) a positive effect of EMU on foreign investment. Using a simulation-based technique, we find that estimates of FDI effects of EMU range between 18.5 percent for Poland and 30 percent for Hungary.
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Find related papers by JEL classification: C33 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Models with Panel Data F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
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