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Assessing Budget Support with Statistical Impact Evaluation: a Methodological Proposal

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  • Chris Elbers

    ()
    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Jan Willem Gunning

    ()
    (VU University Amsterdam)

  • Kobus de Hoop

    ()
    (VU University Amsterdam)

Abstract

Donor agencies and recipient governments want to assess the effectiveness of aid-supported sector policies. Unfortunately, existing methods for impact evaluation are designed for the evaluation of homogeneous interventions (‘projects’) where those with and without ‘treatment’ can be compared. The lack of a methodology for evaluations of sector-wide programs is a serious constraint in the debate on aid effectiveness. We propose a method of statistical impact evaluation in situations with heterogeneous interventions, an extension of the double differencing method often used in project evaluations. We illustrate its feasibility with an example from the education sector in Zambia.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-075/2.

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Date of creation: 24 Sep 2007
Date of revision: 31 Dec 2007
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070075

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Impact Evaluation; Sector-Wide Programs; Aid Effectiveness; Education; Africa; Zambia;

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References

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  1. Timothy Besley & Robin Burgess, 2000. "Land Reform, Poverty Reduction, And Growth: Evidence From India," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 115(2), pages 389-430, May.
  2. Das, J. & Dercon, S. & Habyarimana, J. & Krishnan, P., 2004. "‘When Can School Inputs Improve Test Scores?’," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0437, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  3. Tarp, Finn, 2006. "Aid and Development," MPRA Paper 13171, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  4. Sadoulet, Elisabeth & Janvry, Alain de & Davis, Benjamin, 2001. "Cash Transfer Programs with Income Multipliers: PROCAMPO in Mexico," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1043-1056, June.
  5. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 2001. "Does piped water reduce diarrhea for children in rural India ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2664, The World Bank.
  7. John Newman & Menno Pradhan & Laura B. Rawlings & Geert Ridder & Ramiro Coa & Jose Luis Evia, 2002. "An Impact Evaluation of Education, Health, and Water Supply Investments by the Bolivian Social Investment Fund," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 241-274, August.
  8. Edward Miguel & Michael Kremer, 2004. "Worms: Identifying Impacts on Education and Health in the Presence of Treatment Externalities," Econometrica, Econometric Society, Econometric Society, vol. 72(1), pages 159-217, 01.
  9. Eric A. Hanushek, . "Interpreting Recent Research on Schooling in Developing Countries," Wallis Working Papers, University of Rochester - Wallis Institute of Political Economy WP3, University of Rochester - Wallis Institute of Political Economy.
  10. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Collier, Paul & Dollar, David, 1999. "Aid allocation and poverty reduction," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2041, The World Bank.
  12. White, Howard, 2006. "Impact evaluation: the experience of the Independent Evaluation Group of the World Bank," MPRA Paper 1111, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  13. Heckman, James J. & Lalonde, Robert J. & Smith, Jeffrey A., 1999. "The economics and econometrics of active labor market programs," Handbook of Labor Economics, Elsevier, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 31, pages 1865-2097 Elsevier.
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Cited by:
  1. Riddell, Abby, 2012. "The Effectiveness of Foreign Aid to Education: What Can Be Learned?," Working Paper Series, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER) UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

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