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Idiosyncratic Labour Income Risk and Aggregate Consumption: an Unobserved Component Approach

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Author Info
Lorenzo Pozzi () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Abstract

We investigate the importance of aggregate and consumer-specific or idiosyncratic labour income risk for aggregate consumption changes in the US over the period 1952-2001. Theoretically, the effect of labour income risk on consumption changes is decomposed into an aggregate and into an idiosyncratic part. Empirically, aggregate risk is modelled through a GARCH process on aggregate labour income shocks and individual risk is modelled as an unobserved component and obtained through Kalman filtering. Our results suggest that aggregate labour income risk explains a negligible fraction of the variance of aggregate consumption changes. A more important part of aggregate consumption changes is explained by the unobserved component. The interpretation of this component as reflecting idiosyncratic labour income risk is supported by the finding that it is negatively affected by received consumer transfers. Idiosyncratic labour income risk thus matters for the aggregate economy.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-069/2.

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Date of creation: 12 Sep 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070069

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Related research
Keywords: Labour income uncertainty consumption precaution state space models GARCH errors unobserved component Bayesian

Find related papers by JEL classification:
E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth

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  7. Philippe BACCHETTA & Stefan GERLACH, 1997. "Consumption and Credit Constraints : International Evidence," Cahiers de Recherches Economiques du Département d'Econométrie et d'Economie politique (DEEP) 9707, Université de Lausanne, Faculté des HEC, DEEP.
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  8. Hall, Robert E, 1978. "Stochastic Implications of the Life Cycle-Permanent Income Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(6), pages 971-87, December. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  15. Sydney C. Ludvigson & Alexander Michaelides, 2001. "Does Buffer-Stock Saving Explain the Smoothness and Excess Sensitivity of Consumption?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 631-647, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  19. Giorgio Primiceri & Thijs van Rens, 2002. "Inequality over the Business Cycle: Estimating Income Risk Using Micro-Data on Consumption," Economics Working Papers 943, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2004. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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