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Ageing and the Relative Price of Nontradeables

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Author Info
Leon Bettendorf () (Erasmus University Rotterdam)
Hans Dewachter () (Cath. University of Leuven)

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Abstract

In this paper we identify the effects of ageing on the relative price of nontradeables versus tradeables. We consider two cases. In a first specification, age effects only account for short-run dynamics. An alternative case allows for permanent age effects. Estimating the respective cases by means of an ECM on a panel of OECD countries we find significant effects of demographic composition on the relative prices, even after correcting for the standard explanatory variables. Simulations based on population projections of the UN show that ageing might substantially contribute to inflationary pressures in the near future.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-064/2.

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Date of creation: 24 Aug 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070064

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Related research
Keywords: relative price of nontradeables; age-specific effects; productivity differentials;

Find related papers by JEL classification:
F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends and Forecasts

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  1. De Gregorio, Jose & Giovannini, Alberto & Krueger, Thomas H, 1994. "The Behavior of Nontradable-Goods Prices in Europe: Evidence and Interpretation," Review of International Economics, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 2(3), pages 284-305, October.
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  2. Lane, Philip R. & Milesi-Ferretti, Gian Maria, 2002. "External wealth, the trade balance, and the real exchange rate," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 1049-1071, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  3. Maurice Obstfeld & Kenneth Rogoff, 2004. "The Unsustainable US Current Account Position Revisited," NBER Working Papers 10869, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  4. Cutler, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Sheiner, L.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990. "An Aging Society: Opportunity Or Challenge," Working papers 553, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
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  5. Ray C. Fair & Kathryn M. Dominguez, 1987. "Effects of the Changing U.S. Age Distribution on Macroeconomic Equations," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 839, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1991. "Structural Determinants of Real Exchange Rates and National Price Levels: Some Empirical Evidence," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(1), pages 325-34, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  7. Charles Engel, 2002. "Expenditure Switching and Exchange Rate Policy," NBER Working Papers 9016, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Canzoneri, Matthew B. & Cumby, Robert E. & Diba, Behzad, 1999. "Relative labor productivity and the real exchange rate in the long run: evidence for a panel of OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 245-266, April. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. repec:fth:harver:1490 is not listed on IDEAS
  10. Andersson, A. & Osterholm, P., 2001. "The Impact of Demography on the Real Exchange Rate," Papers 2001-11, Uppsala - Working Paper Series.
  11. Jose De Gregorio & Holger C. Wolf & Alberto Giovannini, 1994. "International Evidence on Tradables and Nontradables Inflation," IMF Working Papers 94/33, International Monetary Fund.
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  12. Froot, Kenneth A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1995. "Perspectives on PPP and long-run real exchange rates," Handbook of International Economics, in: G. M. Grossman & K. Rogoff (ed.), Handbook of International Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 32, pages 1647-1688 Elsevier. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  13. Engel, C., 1996. "Accounting for U.S. Real Exchange Rate Changes," Working Papers 96-02, University of Washington, Department of Economics.
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  14. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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