Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Global Aging and Economic Convergence: A Real Option or Still a Case of Science Fiction?

Contents:

Author Info

  • Hendrik P. van Dalen

    ()
    (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)

Abstract

How does global aging affect the convergence in global economic development? Both the developing and developed world will be characterized for the coming decades by aging populations. Changes in the age distribution of a population are an important determinant of economic performance as they affect wealth accumulation and dependency burdens, yielding a demographic dividend of extra growth. During the twenty years from 1975 to 2005 Europe and the US have benefited from a strong demographic dividend. However, in the decades to come this effect will be reversed and the driving force behind the wealth of nations has to be sought elsewhere. Africa and, to some extent, India might benefit from the demographic dividend. However, this potential growth phase may well disappear if supporting conditions for growth are absent. Large-scale migration is not expected to be a sustainable solution to unbalanced global economic developments. Remittances, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Official Development Assistance (ODA) will remain necessary capital flows for the developing world in the near future. Remittances offer no structural solution to reduction of poverty as these funds flow to a selective group of families and are allocated generally to consumption rather than to investment purposes. Migration of a temporary nature in conjunction with offshore outsourcing of services and production may offer a solution for the dilemmas of population and development, which OECD donors face in offering development assistance and designing immigration policy.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/07051.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-051/1.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 16 Jul 2007
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070051

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: aging; convergence; migration; remittances; population growth;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Raghuram G. Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth: What Does the Cross-Country Evidence Really Show?," NBER Working Papers 11513, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Maureen Lewis, 2005. "Addressing the Challenge of HIV/AIDS: Macroeconomic, Fiscal and Institutional Issues," Working Papers, Center for Global Development 58, Center for Global Development.
  3. Paul Demeny, 2004. "Population Futures for the Next Three Hundred Years: Soft Landing or Surprises to Come?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(3), pages 507-517.
  4. Michel Beine & Frédéric Docquier & Hillel Rapoport, 2002. "Brain Drain and LDCs' Growth: Winners and Losers," Working Papers, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics 2002-08, Bar-Ilan University, Department of Economics.
  5. Hendrik Dalen & George Groenewold & Jeannette Schoorl, 2005. "Out of Africa: what drives the pressure to emigrate?," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 741-778, November.
  6. Chiswick, Barry R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "International Migration and the Integration of Labor Markets," IZA Discussion Papers 559, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  7. Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2002. "IMF Programs: Who is Chosen and What Are the Effects?," NBER Working Papers 8951, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. David E. Bloom & David Canning & Bryan Graham, 2003. "Longevity and Life-cycle Savings," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 319-338, 09.
  9. Edward E Leamer & Michael Storper, 2001. "The Economic Geography of the Internet Age," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 32(4), pages 641-665, December.
  10. Ronald Lee & Andrew Mason & Timothy Miller, 2003. "Saving, Wealth and the Transition from Transfers to Individual Responsibility: The Cases of Taiwan and the United States," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 339-358, 09.
  11. David E. Bloom & David Canning, 2004. "Global demographic change : dimensions and economic significance," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 9-56.
  12. Hamilton, Bob & Whalley, John, 1984. "Efficiency and distributional implications of global restrictions on labour mobility : Calculations and policy implications," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 61-75.
  13. Mary Amiti & Shang-Jin Wei, 2005. "Fear of service outsourcing: is it justified?," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 20(42), pages 308-347, 04.
  14. David E. Bloom & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 1997. "Demographic Transitions and Economic Miracles in Emerging Asia," NBER Working Papers 6268, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  15. Robert E. Hall & Charles I. Jones, 1999. "Why Do Some Countries Produce So Much More Output Per Worker Than Others?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 114(1), pages 83-116, February.
  16. Alberto Alesina & Eliana La Ferrara, 2004. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," NBER Working Papers 10313, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  17. Adams, Richard Jr. & Page, John, 2005. "Do international migration and remittances reduce poverty in developing countries?," World Development, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1645-1669, October.
  18. Alesina, Alberto & La Ferrara, Eliana, 2005. "Ethnic Diversity and Economic Performance," Scholarly Articles 4553005, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  19. Ana María Iregui, 2000. "Efficiency Gains From The Elimination Of Global Restrictions On Labour Mobility: An Analysis Using A Multiregional Cge Model," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 002435, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
  20. Jayaraman, Rajshri & Kanbur, Ravi, 1999. "International Public Goods and the Case for Foreign Aid," Working Papers, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management 127684, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
  21. William Easterly, 2003. "Can Foreign Aid Buy Growth?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 23-48, Summer.
  22. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2004. "International Migration in the Long-Run: Positive Selection, Negative Selection and Policy," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research 2038, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  23. Kaul, Inge & Conceicao, Pedro & Le Goulven, Katell & Mendoza, Ronald U. (ed.), 2003. "Providing Global Public Goods: Managing Globalization," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780195157413, October.
  24. Easterly, William & Levine, Ross, 1997. "Africa's Growth Tragedy: Policies and Ethnic Divisions," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, MIT Press, vol. 112(4), pages 1203-50, November.
  25. Ralph Chami & Connel Fullenkamp & Samir Jahjah, 2005. "Are Immigrant Remittance Flows a Source of Capital for Development?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(1), pages 55-81, April.
  26. Hatton, Timothy J & Williamson, Jeffrey G, 2002. "Out of Africa? Using the Past to Project African Emigration Pressure in the Future," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(3), pages 556-73, August.
  27. Galor, Oded, 1986. "Time preference and international labor migration," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 1-20, February.
  28. Ronald Lee & Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Death and Taxes: Longer life, consumption, and social security," Demography, Springer, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 67-81, February.
  29. Anna Maria Mayda (Georgetown University), 2005. "Who Is Against Immigration? A Cross-Country Investigation of Individual Attitudes towards Immigrants," Working Papers, Georgetown University, Department of Economics gueconwpa~05-05-10, Georgetown University, Department of Economics.
  30. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1990. "Why Doesn't Capital Flow from Rich to Poor Countries?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, American Economic Association, vol. 80(2), pages 92-96, May.
  31. Hendrik van Dalen & Kene Henkens, 2005. "The Rationality Behind Immigration Policy Preferences," De Economist, Springer, Springer, vol. 153(1), pages 67-83, December.
  32. John F. Helliwell, 2004. "Demographic changes and international factor mobility," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 369-420.
  33. Boucekkine, Raouf & de la Croix, David & Licandro, Omar, 2000. "Vintage Human Capital, Demographic Trends and Endogenous Growth," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales), Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES) 2000007, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  34. Stark, Oded, 2003. "Rethinking The Brain Drain," Discussion Papers, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF) 18770, University of Bonn, Center for Development Research (ZEF).
  35. Timothy J. Hatton & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2003. "Demographic and Economic Pressure on Emigration out of Africa," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 105(3), pages 465-486, 09.
  36. T. Paul Schultz, 1998. "Immigrant quality and assimilation: A review of the US literature," Journal of Population Economics, Springer, Springer, vol. 11(2), pages 239-252.
  37. Boeri, Tito & Hanson, Gordon H. & McCormick, Barry (ed.), 2002. "Immigration Policy and the Welfare System: A Report for the Fondazione Rodolfo Debenedetti," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, Oxford University Press, number 9780199256310, October.
  38. Raghuram Rajan & Arvind Subramanian, 2005. "Aid and Growth," IMF Working Papers 05/127, International Monetary Fund.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070051. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.