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The Forward Premium Puzzle only emerges gradually

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Author Info

  • Kerstin Bernoth

    ()
    (De Nederlandsche Bank, and ZEI-University of Bonn)

  • J�rgen von Hagen

    ()
    (University of Bonn, Indiana University, and CEPR)

  • Casper G. de Vries

    ()
    (Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam)

Abstract

The forward premium puzzle (FPP) is the negative correlation between the forward premium and the realized exchange rate return at maturities of a month and beyond. Some recent evidence shows that at maturities of multiple years and at the highest intra day frequency the correlation is positive and close to one. This paper contributes by using futures data instead of forwards to complete the maturity spectrum at the (multi-) day level. We find that the correlation only slowly turns negative as the number of days to maturity is increased to the monthly level. The typical shape of the premium correlation with regard to the forward maturity length appears to be V-shaped.

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File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/07033.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 07-033/2.

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Date of creation: 29 Mar 2007
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20070033

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: exchange rates; market efficiency; forward premium puzzle; uncovered interest parity; futures rates;

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  1. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2007. "Random Walk Expectations and the Forward Discount Puzzle," Working Papers 07.01, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.
  2. Alexius, Annika, 2001. "Uncovered Interest Parity Revisited," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 9(3), pages 505-17, August.
  3. Philippe Bacchetta & Eric van Wincoop, 2006. "Incomplete information processing: a solution to the forward discount puzzle," Working Paper Series 2006-35, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  4. Baillie, Richard T & Bollerslev, Tim, 1989. " Common Stochastic Trends in a System of Exchange Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(1), pages 167-81, March.
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