Model-free Measurement of Exchange Market Pressure
AbstractIf there is exchange market pressure (EMP), monetary authorities can use the interest rate and official interventions to offset this depreciation tendency, or they can let the exchange rate change. We introduce a new approach to derive how these three variables should be combined to measure EMP. This approach differs from existing methods, because it is model—free and requires only few assumptions. It implies that the interest rate should be taken in levels, not in the first—difference form typically used, and the level should be taken relative to the interest rate chosen if the country had no external economic objectives. This makes our measure more in line with economic sense. An illustration of EMP measures for the EMS crises in 1992—1993 shows that our adaptation also makes sense in practice.
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Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 06-112/2.
Date of creation: 02 Jan 2007
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EMP; EMS crisis; exchange rate regime; monetary policy; real interest differential; temporal aggregation;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
- F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
- F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
- G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2007-01-28 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2007-01-28 (Central Banking)
- NEP-IFN-2007-01-28 (International Finance)
- NEP-MAC-2007-01-28 (Macroeconomics)
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