Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

More Hedging Instruments may destablize Markets

Contents:

Author Info

  • William Brock

    ()
    (University of Wisconsin, USA)

  • Cars Hommes

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

  • Florian Wagener

    ()
    (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

This paper formalizes the idea that more hedging instruments may destabilize markets when traders are heterogeneous and adapt their behavior according to experience based reinforcement learning. We investigate three different economic settings, a simple mean-variance asset pricing model, a general equilibrium two-period overlapping generations model with heterogeneous expectations and a noisy rational expectations asset pricing model with heterogeneous information signals. In each setting the introduction of additional Arrow securities can destabilize the market, causing a bifurcation of the steady state to multiple steady states, periodic orbits or even chaotic fluctuations.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/06080.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 06-080/1.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 22 Sep 2006
Date of revision: 30 Apr 2008
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060080

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Asset pricing; hedging; reinforcement learning; nonlinear dynamics; bifurcations;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Florian Wagener & Cars Hommes & William Brock, 2006. "More hedging instruments may destabilize markets," Working Papers wp06-11, Warwick Business School, Finance Group.
  2. Boswijk, H. Peter & Hommes, Cars H. & Manzan, Sebastiano, 2007. "Behavioral heterogeneity in stock prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 1938-1970, June.
  3. Joe Peek & Eric Rosengren, 1997. "Derivatives Activity at Troubled Banks," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer, vol. 12(2), pages 287-302, October.
  4. Chiarella, Carl & He, Xue-Zhong, 2002. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 19(1), pages 95-132, February.
  5. James Bullard & John Duffy, 1995. "On learning and the stability of cycles," Working Papers 1995-006, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  6. Hens, Thorsten & Schenk-Hoppe, Klaus Reiner, 2005. "Evolutionary stability of portfolio rules in incomplete markets," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 43-66, February.
  7. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 2001. "Learning And Excess Volatility," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(02), pages 272-302, April.
  8. Aloisio Araujo & Alvaro Sandroni, 1999. "On the Convergence to Homogeneous Expectations when Markets Are Complete," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(3), pages 663-672, May.
  9. Pablo F. Beker & Subir Chattopadhyay, 2006. "Economic Survival When Markets Are Incomplete," Working Papers. Serie AD 2006-19, Instituto Valenciano de Investigaciones Económicas, S.A. (Ivie).
  10. Grandmont Jean-michel, 1983. "On endogenous competitive business cycles," CEPREMAP Working Papers (Couverture Orange) 8316, CEPREMAP.
  11. Marcet, Albert & Sargent, Thomas J., 1989. "Convergence of least squares learning mechanisms in self-referential linear stochastic models," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 337-368, August.
  12. Sanford J Grossman & Joseph E Stiglitz, 1997. "On the Impossibility of Informationally Efficient Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1908, David K. Levine.
  13. Bullard, James & Duffy, John, 1998. "Learning And The Stability Of Cycles," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 2(01), pages 22-48, March.
  14. de Fontnouvelle, Patrick, 2000. "Information Dynamics In Financial Markets," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 4(02), pages 139-169, June.
  15. Grandmont, Jean-Michel & Younes, Yves, 1972. "On the Role of Money and the Existence of a Monetary Equilibrium," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(3), pages 355-72, July.
  16. Guesnerie, R., 1999. "Anchoring Economic Predictions in Common Knowledge," DELTA Working Papers 1999-06, DELTA (Ecole normale supérieure).
  17. Albert Marcet & Juan P. Nicolini, 2003. "Recurrent Hyperinflations and Learning," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1476-1498, December.
  18. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2005. "Has financial development made the world riskier?," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Aug, pages 313-369.
  19. Rabah Amir & Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, . "Market Selection and Survival of Investment Strategies," IEW - Working Papers 091, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
  20. Lewis, Mervyn K. & Mizen, Paul D., 2000. "Monetary Economics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198290629, October.
  21. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
  22. Schonhofer, Martin, 1999. "Chaotic Learning Equilibria," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 89(1), pages 1-20, November.
  23. David K. Levine & William Zame, 1996. "Debt Constraints and Equilibrium in Infinite Horizon Economies with Incomplete Markets," Levine's Working Paper Archive 1954, David K. Levine.
  24. Kirman, Alan, 1993. "Ants, Rationality, and Recruitment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 108(1), pages 137-56, February.
  25. Shlomo Benartzi & Richard Thaler, 2007. "Heuristics and Biases in Retirement Savings Behavior," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 21(3), pages 81-104, Summer.
  26. repec:att:wimass:9624 is not listed on IDEAS
  27. David K. Levine & William Zame, 2001. "Does Market Incompleteness Matter," Levine's Working Paper Archive 78, David K. Levine.
  28. repec:cup:macdyn:v:4:y:2000:i:2:p:139-69 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. David Goldbaum, 2001. "Market Efficiency and Learning in an Endogenously Unstable Environment," Computing in Economics and Finance 2001 105, Society for Computational Economics.
  30. James Bullard, 1991. "Learning equilibria," Working Papers 1991-004, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  31. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2000. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risk and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model with a Market Maker," Research Paper Series 35, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  32. Cars H. Hommes, 2005. "Heterogeneous Agent Models in Economics and Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-056/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  33. repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
  34. Jean-Michel Grandmont, 2008. "Nonlinear Difference Equations, Bifurcations and Chaos: An Introduction," Working Papers 2008_23, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
  35. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  36. repec:att:wimass:9725 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Magill, Michael & Quinzii, Martine, 1994. "Infinite Horizon Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 853-80, July.
  38. Hellwig, Martin F., 1980. "On the aggregation of information in competitive markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 477-498, June.
  39. William A. Branch, 2004. "The Theory of Rationally Heterogeneous Expectations: Evidence from Survey Data on Inflation Expectations," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 114(497), pages 592-621, 07.
  40. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  41. Alan Kirman, 2006. "Heterogeneity in Economics," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 89-117, May.
  42. Igor V. Evstigneev & Thorsten Hens & Klaus Reiner Schenk-Hoppé, 2002. "Market Selection Of Financial Trading Strategies: Global Stability," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 329-339.
  43. Lawrence Blume & David Easley, 2006. "If You're so Smart, why Aren't You Rich? Belief Selection in Complete and Incomplete Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 74(4), pages 929-966, 07.
  44. William A. Brock & Patrick de Fontnouvelle, 1996. "Expectational Diversity in Monetary Economies," Working Papers 96-11-084, Santa Fe Institute.
  45. David Cass, 2006. "Musings on the Cass Trick," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-011, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
  46. Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Sethi, Rajiv & Franke, Reiner, 1995. "Behavioural Heterogeneity under Evolutionary Pressure: Macroeconomic Implications of Costly Optimisation," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(430), pages 583-600, May.
  48. Alessandro Citanna & Karl Schmedders, 2005. "Excess price volatility and financial innovation," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 559-587, October.
  49. Nicholas Barberis & Richard Thaler, 2002. "A Survey of Behavioral Finance," NBER Working Papers 9222, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  50. repec:att:wimass:9621 is not listed on IDEAS
  51. Sandroni, Alvaro, 2005. "Market selection when markets are incomplete," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 91-104, February.
  52. GRANDMONT, Jean-Michel, 1997. "Expectations formation and stability of large socioeconomic systems," CORE Discussion Papers 1997088, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  53. Elul Ronel, 1995. "Welfare Effects of Financial Innovation in Incomplete Markets Economies with Several Consumption Goods," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 65(1), pages 43-78, February.
  54. LeBaron, Blake & Arthur, W. Brian & Palmer, Richard, 1999. "Time series properties of an artificial stock market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1487-1516, September.
  55. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
  56. De Grauwe, Paul & Grimaldi, Marianna, 2006. "Exchange rate puzzles: A tale of switching attractors," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-33, January.
  57. Blume, Lawrence & Easley, David, 1992. "Evolution and market behavior," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 58(1), pages 9-40, October.
  58. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  59. Branch, William A. & Evans, George W., 2006. "Intrinsic heterogeneity in expectation formation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 264-295, March.
  60. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  61. Raghuram G. Rajan, 2006. "Has Finance Made the World Riskier?," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 12(4), pages 499-533.
  62. Medio,Alfredo & Lines,Marji, 2001. "Nonlinear Dynamics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521551861.
  63. Cars Hommes & Joep Sonnemans & Jan Tuinstra & Henk van de Velden, 2003. "Coordination of Expectations in Asset Pricing Experiments," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-010/1, Tinbergen Institute.
  64. Alvaro Sandroni, 2000. "Do Markets Favor Agents Able to Make Accurate Predicitions?," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 68(6), pages 1303-1342, November.
  65. repec:cup:macdyn:v:2:y:1998:i:1:p:22-48 is not listed on IDEAS
  66. De Long, J Bradford & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1990. "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(4), pages 703-38, August.
  67. Hart, Oliver D., 1975. "On the optimality of equilibrium when the market structure is incomplete," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 418-443, December.
  68. Benhabib, Jess & Day, Richard H., 1982. "A characterization of erratic dynamics in, the overlapping generations model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 37-55, November.
  69. Douglas W. Diamond & Raghuram Rajan, 2009. "The Credit Crisis: Conjectures about Causes and Remedies," NBER Working Papers 14739, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  70. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
  71. Manuel S. Santos & Michael Woodford, 1997. "Rational Asset Pricing Bubbles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(1), pages 19-58, January.
  72. David Cass & Alessandro Citanna, 1998. "Pareto improving financial innovation in incomplete markets," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 467-494.
  73. Erik R. Sirri & Peter Tufano, 1998. "Costly Search and Mutual Fund Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1589-1622, October.
  74. LeBaron, Blake, 2006. "Agent-based Computational Finance," Handbook of Computational Economics, in: Leigh Tesfatsion & Kenneth L. Judd (ed.), Handbook of Computational Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 24, pages 1187-1233 Elsevier.
  75. Boldrin, Michele & Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Equilibrium models displaying endogenous fluctuations and chaos : A survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 189-222, March.
  76. Tesfatsion, Leigh & Judd, Kenneth L., 2006. "Handbook of Computational Economics, Vol. 2: Agent-Based Computational Economics," Staff General Research Papers 10368, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  77. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  78. Brock, W.A., 1990. "Overlapping generations models with money and transactions costs," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 263-295 Elsevier.
  79. Karceski, Jason, 2002. "Returns-Chasing Behavior, Mutual Funds, and Beta's Death," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(04), pages 559-594, December.
  80. Arifovic, Jasmina, 1994. "Genetic algorithm learning and the cobweb model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 3-28, January.
  81. Woodford, Michael, 1990. "Learning to Believe in Sunspots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 277-307, March.
  82. repec:cup:macdyn:v:5:y:2001:i:2:p:272-302 is not listed on IDEAS
  83. Goldbaum, David, 2006. "Self-organization and the persistence of noise in financial markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(9-10), pages 1837-1855.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Blog mentions

As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
  1. Efficiency versus stability
    by Mark Buchanan in The Physics of Finance on 2011-08-24 16:42:00
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
as in new window

Cited by:
This item has more than 25 citations. To prevent cluttering this page, these citations are listed on a separate page.

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060080. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.