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The Asymptotic and Finite Sample Distributions of OLS and Simple IV in Simultaneous Equations

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Author Info
Jan F. Kiviet () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Jerzy Niemczyk () (Universiteit van Amsterdam)

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Abstract

In practice structural equations are often estimated by least-squares, thus neglecting any simultaneity. This paper reveals why this may often be justifiable and when. Assuming data stationarity and existence of the first four moments of the disturbances we find the limiting distribution of the ordinary least-squares (OLS) estimator in a linear simultaneous equations model. In simple static and dynamic models we compare the asymptotic efficiency of this inconsistent estimator with that of consistent simple instrumental variable (IV) estimators and depict cases where -- due to relative weakness of the instruments or mildness of the simultaneity -- the inconsistent estimator is more precise. In addition, we examine by simulation to what extent these first-order asymptotic findings are reflected in finite sample, taking into account non-existence of moments of the IV estimator. By dynamic visualization techniques we enable to appreciate any differences in efficiency over a parameter space of a much higher dimension than just two, viz. in colored animated image sequences (which are not very effective in print, but much more so in live-on-screen projection).

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 06-078/4.

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Date of creation: 18 Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060078

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Related research
Keywords: efficiency of an inconsistent estimator; invalid instruments; simultaneity bias; weak instruments; 4D diagrams;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Estimation
C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods
C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Elliott, Graham & Stock, James H., 2001. "Confidence intervals for autoregressive coefficients near one," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 103(1-2), pages 155-181, July. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Woglom, Geoffrey, 2001. "More Results on the Exact Small Sample Properties of the Instrumental Variable Estimator," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(5), pages 1381-89, September.
  3. Jinyong Hahn & Atsushi Inoue, 2002. "A Monte Carlo Comparison Of Various Asymptotic Approximations To The Distribution Of Instrumental Variables Estimators," Econometric Reviews, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 21(3), pages 309-336. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  4. Douglas Staiger & James H. Stock, 1997. "Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(3), pages 557-586, May.
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  5. Alastair R. Hall & Atsushi Inoue, 2005. "The Large Sample Behaviour of the Generalized Method of Moments Estimator in Misspecified Models," Econometrics 0505002, EconWPA. [Downloadable!]
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  6. Hillier, Grant, 2006. "Yet More On The Exact Properties Of Iv Estimators," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(05), pages 913-931, October. [Downloadable!]
  7. West, Kenneth D & Wilcox, David W, 1996. "A Comparison of Alternative Instrumental Variables Estimators of a Dynamic Linear Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 14(3), pages 281-93, July.
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  8. Maasoumi, Esfandiar & Phillips, Peter C. B., 1982. "On the behavior of inconsistent instrumental variable estimators," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 19(2-3), pages 183-201, August. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  9. Maurice J.G. Bun & Jan F. Kiviet, 2002. "The Effects of Dynamic Feedbacks on LS and MM Estimator Accuracy in Panel Data Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-101/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 19 Feb 2004. [Downloadable!]
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  10. Agnes S. Joseph & Jan F. Kiviet, 2004. "Viewing the Relative Efficiency of IV Estimators in Models with Lagged and Instantaneous Feedbacks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 04-056/4, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Jean-Marie Dufour & Lynda Khalaf & Maral Kichian, 2009. "Structural Inflation Models with Real Wage Rigidities: The Case of Canada," Working Papers 09-21, Bank of Canada. [Downloadable!]
  2. Peter C. B. Phillips, 2005. "A Remark on Bimodality and Weak Instrumentation in Structural Equation Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1540, Cowles Foundation, Yale University. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Michael Biggs & Thomas Meyer & Andreas Pick, 2009. "Credit and economic recovery," DNB Working Papers 218, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department. [Downloadable!]
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