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Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals

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  • Siem Jan Koopman

    () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Roman Kraeussl

    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Andre Lucas

    () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

  • Andre Monteiro

    () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)

Abstract

We study the relation between the credit cycle and macro-economic fundamentals in an intensity-based framework. Using rating transition and default data of U.S. corporates from Standard and Poor’s over the period 1980—2005 we directly estimate the credit cycle from the micro rating data. We relate this cycle to the business cycle, bank lending conditions, and financial market variables. In line with earlier studies, these variables appear to explain part of the credit cycle. As our main contribution, we test for the correct dynamic specification of these models. In all cases, the hypothesis of correct dynamic specification is strongly rejected. Moreover, if we account for the dynamic mis-specification, many of the variables thought to explain the credit cycle, turn out to be insignificant. The main exceptions are GDP growth, and to some extent stock returns and stock return volatilities. Their economic significance appears low, however. This raises the puzzle of which macro-economic fundamentals explain default and rating dynamics.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 06-023/2.

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Date of creation: 08 Mar 2006
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20060023

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: Credit cycles; Business cycles; Bank lending conditions; Unobserved component models; Intensity models;

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References

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  1. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter, 2006. "Discrete versus continuous state switching models for portfolio credit risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 23-35, January.
  2. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
  3. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Linde, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2007. "Corporate credit risk modeling and the macroeconomy," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 845-868, March.
  4. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September.
  5. Fama, Eugene F., 1986. "Term premiums and default premiums in money markets," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 175-196, September.
  6. Roman Kraeussl, 2003. "Sovereign Credit Ratings and Their Impact on Recent Financial Crises," Working Papers 0313, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
  7. André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2003. "Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-075/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 30 Sep 2003.
  8. Nickell, Pamela & Perraudin, William & Varotto, Simone, 2000. "Stability of rating transitions," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 24(1-2), pages 203-227, January.
  9. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-70, May.
  10. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas & Bernd Schwaab, 2008. "Forecasting Cross-Sections of Frailty-Correlated Default," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 08-029/4, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Lindé, Jesper & Roszbach, Kasper, 2002. "Capital Charges under Basel II: Corporate Credit Risk Modelling and the Macro Economy," Working Paper Series 142, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  12. Ferri, Giovanni & Liu, Li-Gang & Majnoni, Giovanni, 2001. "The role of rating agency assessments in less developed countries: Impact of the proposed Basel guidelines," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 115-148, January.
  13. André Lucas & Siem Jan Koopman, 2005. "Business and default cycles for credit risk," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 311-323.
  14. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2001. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198523543, July.
  15. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March.
  16. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
  17. Philipp J. Schönbucher, 2000. "Factor Models for Portofolio Credit Risk," Bonn Econ Discussion Papers bgse16_2001, University of Bonn, Germany.
  18. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  19. Stock, J.H. & Watson, M.W., 1989. "New Indexes Of Coincident And Leading Economic Indicators," Papers 178d, Harvard - J.F. Kennedy School of Government.
  20. Darrell Duffie & Leandro Siata & Ke Wang, 2006. "Multi-Period Corporate Default Prediction With Stochastic Covariates," NBER Working Papers 11962, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  21. Lando, David & Skodeberg, Torben M., 2002. "Analyzing rating transitions and rating drift with continuous observations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 423-444, March.
  22. Siem Jan Koopman & Andr� Lucas, 2003. "Business and Default Cycles for Credit Risk," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 03-062/2, Tinbergen Institute, revised 09 Jan 2003.
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Citations

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Cited by:
  1. Guillermo Ordonez, 2008. "Fragility of Reputation and Clustering in Risk Taking," 2008 Meeting Papers 441, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  2. Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua Pollet, 2009. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 15335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Koopman, Siem Jan & Lucas, Andre & Monteiro, Andre, 2008. "The multi-state latent factor intensity model for credit rating transitions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 399-424, January.
  4. Carlos Castro, 2012. "Confidence sets for asset correlations in portfolio credit risk," REVISTA DE ECONOMÍA DEL ROSARIO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  5. Kauko, Karlo, 2010. "The feasibility of through-the-cycle ratings," Research Discussion Papers 14/2010, Bank of Finland.
  6. Stefan Kerbl & Michael Sigmund, 2011. "What Drives Aggregate Credit Risk?," Financial Stability Report, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 22, pages 72-87, December.
  7. Konrad Banachewicz & Andr� Lucas, 2007. "Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management using possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-046/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  8. Adam Gersl & Petr Jakubik, 2010. "Procyclicality of the Financial System and Simulation of the Feedback Effect," Occasional Publications - Chapters in Edited Volumes, in: CNB Financial Stability Report 2009/2010, chapter 0, pages 110-119 Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  9. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & André Monteiro, 2005. "The Multi-State Latent Factor Intensity Model for Credit Rating Transitions," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-071/4, Tinbergen Institute, revised 04 Jul 2005.
  10. Konrad Banachewicz & Aad van der Vaart & Andr� Lucas, 2006. "Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-094/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  11. Lee, Shih-Cheng & Lin, Chien-Ting & Yang, Chih-Kai, 2011. "The asymmetric behavior and procyclical impact of asset correlations," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(10), pages 2559-2568, October.
  12. Salnikov, V. & Mogilat, A. & Maslov, I., 2012. "Stress Testing for Russian Real Sector: First Approach," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 46-70.
  13. Bezemer, Dirk J, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 15896, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  14. Georges Dionne & Pascal François & Olfa Maalaoui Chun, 2009. "Detecting Regime Shifts in Corporate Credit Spreads," Cahiers de recherche 0929, CIRPEE.
  15. Bezemer, Dirk J & Werner, Richard A, 2009. "Disaggregated Credit Flows and Growth in Central Europe," MPRA Paper 17456, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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