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Heterogeneous Agent Models: Two Simple Case Studies

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  • Cars Hommes

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)

Abstract

These notes review two simple heterogeneous agent models in economics and finance. The first is a cobweb model with rational versus naive agents introduced in Brock and Hommes (1997). The second is an asset pricing model with fundamentalists versus technical traders introduced in Brock and Hommes (1998). Agents are boundedly rational and switch between different trading strategies, based upon an evolutionary fitness measure given by realized past profits. Evolutionary switching creates a nonlinearity in the dynamics. Rational routes to randomness, that is, bifurcation routes to complicated dynamical behaviour occur when agents become more sensitive to differences in evolutionary fitness.

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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 05-055/1.

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Date of creation: 30 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20050055

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: interacting agents; complex adaptive systems; evolutionary dynamics; bounded rationality; nonlinear dynamics; bifurcations and chaos.;

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References

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  1. J. Doyne Farmer, 2002. "Market force, ecology and evolution," Industrial and Corporate Change, Oxford University Press, vol. 11(5), pages 895-953, November.
  2. William A. Brock, 1993. "Pathways to randomness in the economy: Emergent nonlinearity and chaos in economics and finance," Estudios Económicos, El Colegio de México, Centro de Estudios Económicos, vol. 8(1), pages 3-55.
  3. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H., 1996. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Working papers 9530r, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  4. J. Doyne Farmer & Shareen Joshi, 2000. "The price dynamics of common trading strategies," Papers cond-mat/0012419, arXiv.org.
  5. Fama, Eugene F, 1970. "Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 25(2), pages 383-417, May.
  6. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 1999. "Heterogeneous Beliefs, Risks and Learning in a Simple Asset Pricing Model," Research Paper Series 18, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  7. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, . "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," J. Bradford De Long's Working Papers _124, University of California at Berkeley, Economics Department.
  8. Day, R. & Huang, W., 1988. "Bulls, Bears And Market Sheep," Papers m8822, Southern California - Department of Economics.
  9. Brock, William A & LeBaron, Blake D, 1996. "A Dynamic Structural Model for Stock Return Volatility and Trading Volume," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 94-110, February.
  10. Baak, Saang Joon, 1999. "Tests for bounded rationality with a linear dynamic model distorted by heterogeneous expectations," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 23(9-10), pages 1517-1543, September.
  11. M. M. Dacorogna & U. A. Muller & C. Jost & O. V. Pictet & J. R. Ward, 1995. "Heterogeneous real-time trading strategies in the foreign exchange market," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 383-403.
  12. repec:att:wimass:9706 is not listed on IDEAS
  13. repec:att:wimass:9625 is not listed on IDEAS
  14. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H. & Wagener, Florian O. O., 2005. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(1-2), pages 7-42, February.
  15. Carl Chiarella, 1992. "The Dynamics of Speculative Behaviour," Working Paper Series 13, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney.
  16. Brock, William A. & Hommes, Cars H., 1998. "Heterogeneous beliefs and routes to chaos in a simple asset pricing model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 22(8-9), pages 1235-1274, August.
  17. Brock,W.A. & Hommes,C.H., 1998. "Rational animal spirits," Working papers 23, Wisconsin Madison - Social Systems.
  18. repec:att:wimass:9606 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. Chavas, Jean-Paul, 2000. "On information and market dynamics: The case of the U.S. beef market," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 24(5-7), pages 833-853, June.
  21. W. Brian Arthur & John H. Holland & Blake LeBaron & Richard Palmer & Paul Taylor, 1996. "Asset Pricing Under Endogenous Expectation in an Artificial Stock Market," Working Papers 96-12-093, Santa Fe Institute.
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Cited by:
  1. Gomes, Orlando, 2007. "Externalities in R&D: a route to endogenous fluctuations," MPRA Paper 2850, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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