Money - Inflation Nexus in Indonesia: Evidence from a P-Star Analysis
AbstractIn this paper the effect of excess narrow money (MI) on C PI intlation in Indonesiabefore, during, and after the Asian crisis is empirically examined. The standard model for themonetary analysis of inflation, i.e. the P-Star model by Hallman-Porter-Small (1991), isapplied and tested empirically using quarterly Indonesian data between 1981 and 2002. Theempirical model is a Markov switching error correction model. The results show that the tworegime P-star model, in terms of excess MI, tracks the long run dynamics of CPI inflation inIndonesia remarkably weIl. Hence, there is an empirical support for the assertion that longrun CPI intlation in Indonesia is a monetary phenomenon. In addition, there is evidence of aco-breaking relationship between excess MI and consumer prices in Indonesia during theAsian crisis.
Download InfoIf you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
Bibliographic InfoPaper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 05-054/4.
Date of creation: 30 May 2005
Date of revision:
Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl
inflation; monetary model; structural break; regime switching error correction model; co-breaking; Asian crisis; Indonesia;
Find related papers by JEL classification:
- E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
- C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:
- NEP-ALL-2005-06-05 (All new papers)
- NEP-CBA-2005-06-05 (Central Banking)
- NEP-MAC-2005-06-05 (Macroeconomics)
- NEP-MON-2005-06-05 (Monetary Economics)
- NEP-SEA-2005-06-05 (South East Asia)
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
- Clarida, Richard & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P & Valente, Giorgio, 2002.
"The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3281, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
- Richard Clarida & Lucio Sarno & Mark Taylor & Giorgio Valente, 2001. "The Out-of-Sample Success of Term Structure Models as Exchange Rate Predictors: A Step Beyond," NBER Working Papers 8601, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neil R. Ericsson & David F. Hendry & Grayham E. Mizon, 1998.
"Exogeneity, cointegration, and economic policy analysis,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
616, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Ericsson, Neil R & Hendry, David F & Mizon, Grayham E, 1998. "Exogeneity, Cointegration, and Economic Policy Analysis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 370-87, October.
- Bent Nielsen, 2000.
"Cointegration Analysis in the Presence of Structural Breaks in the Deterministic Trend,"
Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers
1494, Econometric Society.
- Søren Johansen & Rocco Mosconi & Bent Nielsen, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 3(2), pages 216-249.
- Bent Nielsen & Soren Johansen and Rocco Mosconi, 2000. "Cointegration analysis in the presence of structural breaks in the deterministic trend," Economics Series Working Papers 2000-W22, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Clemens J. M. Kool & John A. Tatom, 1994. "The P-star model in five small economies," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue May, pages 11-29.
- Lars E.O. Svensson & Stefan Gerlach, 2001.
"Money and inflation in the Euro Area: A case for monetary indicators?,"
BIS Working Papers
98, Bank for International Settlements.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E. O., 2003. "Money and inflation in the euro area: A case for monetary indicators?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(8), pages 1649-1672, November.
- Gerlach, Stefan & Svensson, Lars E O, 2002. "Money and Inflation in the Euro-Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," CEPR Discussion Papers 3392, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stefan Gerlach & Lars E.O. Svensson, 2000. "Money and Inflation in the Euro Area: A Case for Monetary Indicators?," NBER Working Papers 8025, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Grayham E. Mizon & David F. Hendry, 1998. "Exogeneity, causality, and co-breaking in economic policy analysis of a small econometric model of money in the UK," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 267-294.
- Johansen, S., 1991.
"Testing Weak Exogeneity and the Order of Cointegration in UK Money Demand Data,"
78, Helsinki - Department of Economics.
- Johansen, Soren, 1992. "Testing weak exogeneity and the order of cointegration in UK money demand data," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 313-334, June.
- Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
- Scott, Alasdair, 2003. "APPLIED MACROECONOMETRICS Carlo A. Favero Oxford University Press, 2001," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(02), pages 313-315, April.
- Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
- Hendry, David F, 1997. "The Econometrics of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(444), pages 1330-57, September.
- Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-80, November.
- Reza Anglingkusumo, 2005. "Stability of the Demand for Real Narrow Money in lndonesia," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 05-051/4, Tinbergen Institute.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.