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Behavioral Heterogeneity in Stock Prices

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Author Info
Peter Boswijk () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Cars H. Hommes () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Sebastiano Manzan () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)

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Abstract

We estimate a dynamic asset pricing model characterized by heterogeneous boundedly rational agents. The fundamental value of the risky asset is publicly available to all agents, but they have different beliefs about the persistence of deviations of stock prices from the fundamental benchmark. An evolutionary selection mechanism based on relative past profits governs the dynamics of the fractions and switching of agents between different beliefs or forecasting strategies. A strategy attracts more agents if it performed relatively well in the recent past compared to other strategies. We estimate the model to annual US stock price data from 1871 until 2003. The estimation results support the existence of two expectation regimes. One regime can be characterized as a fundamentalists regime, because agents believe in mean reversion of stock prices toward the benchmark fundamental value. The second regime can be characterized as a chartist, trend following regime because agents expect the deviations from the fundamental to trend. The fractions of agents using the fundamentalists and trend following forecasting rules show substantial time variation and switching between predictors. The model offers an explanation for the recent stock prices run-up. Before the 90s the trend following regime was active only occasionally. However, in the late 90s the trend following regime persisted and created an extraordinary deviation of stock prices from the fundamentals. Recently, the activation of the mean reversion regime has contributed to drive stock prices back towards their fundamental valuation.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 05-052/1.

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Date of creation: 30 May 2005
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20050052

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Related research
Keywords: behavioral finance; heterogeneous expectations; evolutionary switching; mean reversion; asset bubbles;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

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Full references

Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Frank Westerhoff & Martin Hohnisch, 2007. "A note on interactions-driven business cycles," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 2(1), pages 85-91, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  2. Hommes, C.H., 2006. "Interacting agents in finance, entry written for the New Palgrave Dictionary of Economics, Second Edition, edited by L. Blume and S. Durlauf, Palgrave Macmillan, forthcoming 2006," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  3. Diks, C.G.H. & Dindo, P.D.E., 2006. "Informational differences and learning in an asset market with boundedly rational agents," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-11, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Cars Hommes, 2006. "Interacting Agents in Finance," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-029/1, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  5. Sheri Markose, 2006. "Developments in experimental and agent-based computational economics (ACE): overview," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 119-127, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  6. JAWADI Fredj, 2008. "Does nonlinear econometrics confirm the macroeconomic models of consumption?," Economics Bulletin, Economics Bulletin, vol. 5(17), pages 1-11. [Downloadable!]
  7. Lukas Menkhoff & Rafael R. Rebitzky & Michael Schröder, 2008. "Heterogeneity in Exchange Rate Expectations: Evidence on the Chartist-Fundamentalist Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series CESifo Working Paper No. , CESifo Group Munich. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  8. Baosheng Yuan & Kan Chen, 2006. "Impact of investor’s varying risk aversion on the dynamics of asset price fluctuations," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 189-214, November. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Fredj Jawadi & Georges Prat, 2009. "Nonlinear Stock Price Adjustment in the G7 Countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2009-21, University of Paris West - Nanterre la Défense, EconomiX. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  10. Kevin J. Lansing, 2007. "Rational and near-rational bubbles without drift," Working Paper Series 2007-10, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. [Downloadable!]
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