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On Expectations, Realizations and Partial Retirement

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Author Info
Mauro Mastrogiacomo () (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)
Abstract

This study investigates whether many people fear an unexpected shock in their financial situation around retirement and whether the related expectations and realizations match each other. We use the Dutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where expectations about the next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realized changes exceed expectations, and that this finding is more promi- nent around age 65. The descriptive statistics, as well as the non- parametric tests on the conditional distribution of expectations and realizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes- simistic and attach more weight to prospective bad events than to good events. The model estimates show that their fears are unjustified, in particular when individuals are highly educated. Further the link he- tween macro shocks, micro-shocks and expectations is investigated.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 04-052/3.

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Date of creation: 06 May 2004
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20040052

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl/

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Related research
Keywords: retirement expectations non parametric test

Find related papers by JEL classification:
D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations
J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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References listed on IDEAS
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  1. Das, M. & Soest, A. van, 1995. "Expected and Realized Income Changes : Evidence from the Dutch Socio-Economic Panel," Discussion Paper 52, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  2. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 2001. "Retirement Incentives and Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  3. Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 9586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  4. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2002. "Retirement Consumption: Insights from a Survey," NBER Working Papers 8735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  5. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving," Working Papers wp012, University of Michigan, Michigan Retirement Research Center. [Downloadable!]
  6. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-88, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
  7. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2000. "Social Security Incentives for Retirement," NBER Working Papers 7651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  8. Alessie, Rob & Kapteyn, Arie, 2001. "Savings and pensions in The Netherlands," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 61-82, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  9. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 8406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
  10. Richard Disney & Sarah Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies. [Downloadable!]
  11. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," NBER Working Papers 8718, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
    Other versions:
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