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On Expectations, Realizations and Partial Retirement

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  • Mauro Mastrogiacomo

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    (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and CPB, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis)

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    Abstract

    This study investigates whether many people fear an unexpectedshock in their financial situation around retirement and whether therelated expectations and realizations match each other. We use theDutch Social Economic Panel survey data, where expectations aboutthe next year's financial situation are reported. We show that realizedchanges exceed expectations, and that this finding is more promi-nent around age 65. The descriptive statistics, as well as the non-parametric tests on the conditional distribution of expectations andrealizations, suggest that individuals around retirement are overly pes-simistic and attach more weight to prospective bad events than to goodevents. The model estimates show that their fears are unjustified, inparticular when individuals are highly educated. Further the link he-tween macro shocks, micro-shocks and expectations is investigated.

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    Bibliographic Info

    Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 04-052/3.

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    Date of creation: 06 May 2004
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    Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20040052

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    Keywords: retirement; expectations; non parametric test;

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    1. Banks, James & Blundell, Richard & Tanner, Sarah, 1998. "Is There a Retirement-Savings Puzzle?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 88(4), pages 769-88, September.
    2. Alessie, Rob & Kapteyn, Arie, 2002. "Savings and pensions in the Netherlands," Serie Research Memoranda 0009, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    3. Das, J.W.M. & Soest, A.H.O. van, 1997. "Expected and realized income changes: Evidence from the Dutch socio-economic panel," Open Access publications from Tilburg University urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-121744, Tilburg University.
    4. Jeff Dominitz & Charles F. Manski & Jordan Heinz, 2002. "Social Security Expectations and Retirement Savings Decisions," JCPR Working Papers 273, Northwestern University/University of Chicago Joint Center for Poverty Research.
    5. Sewin Chan & Ann Huff Stevens, 2001. "Retirement Incentives and Expectations," NBER Working Papers 8082, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michael Hurd & Susann Rohwedder, 2003. "The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement," NBER Working Papers 9586, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. John Ameriks & Andrew Caplin & John Leahy, 2002. "Retirement Consumption: Insights from a Survey," NBER Working Papers 8735, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Courtney Coile & Jonathan Gruber, 2001. "Social Security Incentives for Retirement," NBER Chapters, in: Themes in the Economics of Aging, pages 311-354 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Richard Disney & Sarah Tanner, 1999. "What can we learn from retirement expectations data?," IFS Working Papers W99/17, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    10. Alan L. Gustman & Thomas L. Steinmeier, 2001. "Imperfect Knowledge, Retirement and Saving," NBER Working Papers 8406, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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