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Herding, A-synchronous Updating and Heterogeneity in Memory in a CBS

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Author Info
Cees Diks () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)
Roy van der Weide () (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, Universiteit van Amsterdam)

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Abstract

This paper considers a simple Continuous Beliefs System (CBS) to investigate the effects on price dynamics of several behavioral assumptions: (i) herd behaviour; (ii) a-synchronous updating of beliefs; and (iii) heterogeneity in time horizons (memory) among agents. The recently introduced concept of a CBS allows one to model the co-evolution of prices and the beliefs distribution explicitly, while keeping track of the unpredictable nature of individual preferences (Diks and Van der Weide, 2003). As a benchmark model we take a simple CBS, which in a market with many traders exhibits a random walk driven by news.Using the explicit nature of the dynamics of the CBS we show that the introduction of herding modifies the random walk to an ARIMA($0,1,1$) process, which is observationally equivalent to a reduction of the number of market participants. In terms of returns the model predicts MA(1) structure with a negative coeffient. Asynchronous updating leads to an MA(1) model for returns with GARCH($1,1$) innovations, and predicts a relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients. Heterogeneity in memory leads to long-range dependence in returns. In the empirical section we perform a modest `reality check' concerning the predicted sign of the MA coefficient and the relation between the ARCH and GARCH coefficients for exchange rate data.

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Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-103/1.

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Date of creation: 19 Dec 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030103

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Related research
Keywords: Continuous beliefs systems; Random dynamical systems; Heterogeneity; Herding; ARIMA; GARCH; Long-range dependence;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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  6. Muller, Ulrich A. & Dacorogna, Michel M. & Dave, Rakhal D. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V. & von Weizsacker, Jacob E., 1997. "Volatilities of different time resolutions -- Analyzing the dynamics of market components," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 213-239, June. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  20. Brock, W.A. & Hommes, C.H. & Wagener, F.O.O., 2002. "Evolutionary dynamics in markets with many trader types," CeNDEF Working Papers 02-10, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Hommes, C.H., 2007. "Bounded Rationality and Learning in Complex Markets," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-01, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
  2. Anufriev, M. & Panchenko, V., 2007. "Asset Prices, Traders' Behavior, and Market Design," CeNDEF Working Papers 07-14, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Diks, C.G.H. & Hommes, C.H. & Panchenko, V. & Weide, R. van der, 2006. "E&F Chaos: a user friendly software package for nonlinear economic dynamics," CeNDEF Working Papers 06-15, Universiteit van Amsterdam, Center for Nonlinear Dynamics in Economics and Finance. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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