Advanced Search
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

The Importance of Accounting for Time Trends when Estimating the Euro Effect on Trade

Contents:

Author Info

  • Maurice J.G. Bun

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam)

  • Franc J.G.M. Klaassen

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Econometrics, University of Amsterdam)

Abstract

To study the effect of the euro on international goods trade one typically estimates a panel model for the level of trade. Trade levels increase over time, and we show that this is not fully explained by the included regressors. Because the euro is only present at the end of the sample, this may have led to an upward bias in existing euro estimates to help explain the upward trend. To correct for that, we extend the panel model (a gravity model) by including a time trend that may have different effects across country-pairs. Data on industrialized countries over 1967-2002 show the existing euro effects of between 5% and 40% shrink to a statistically insignificant 3%. For comparison, the estimated trade effects of other currency unions are reduced from90% to 25%. Hence, accounting for time trends matters.

Download Info

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/03086.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-086/2.

as in new window
Length:
Date of creation: 21 Oct 2003
Date of revision: 14 Oct 2004
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030086

Contact details of provider:
Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: currency union; deterministic trend; EMU; fixed effects; gravity model; panel data;

Find related papers by JEL classification:

This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

References

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
as in new window
  1. Cornwell, Christopher & Schmidt, Peter & Sickles, Robin C., 1990. "Production frontiers with cross-sectional and time-series variation in efficiency levels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1-2), pages 185-200.
  2. Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
  3. Wansbeek, Tom & Kapteyn, Arie, 1989. "Estimation of the error-components model with incomplete panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 341-361, July.
  4. David Barr & Francis Breedon & David Miles, 2003. "Life on the outside: economic conditions and prospects outside euroland," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 573-613, October.
  5. Maurice J.G. Bun & Franc J.G.M. Klaassen, 2002. "Has the Euro increased Trade?," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-108/2, Tinbergen Institute.
  6. Bergstrand, Jeffrey H, 1989. "The Generalized Gravity Equation, Monopolistic Competition, and the Factor-Proportions Theory in International Trade," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(1), pages 143-53, February.
  7. Alejandro Micco & Ernesto Stein & Guillermo OrdoÒez, 2003. "The currency union effect on trade: early evidence from EMU," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 315-356, October.
  8. Flam, Harry & Nordström, Håkan, 2006. "Trade Volume Effects of the Euro: Aggregate and Sector Estimates," Seminar Papers 746, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
  9. Andrew K. Rose, 2000. "One money, one market: the effect of common currencies on trade," Economic Policy, CEPR & CES & MSH, vol. 15(30), pages 7-46, 04.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

Citations

Lists

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

Statistics

Access and download statistics

Corrections

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030086. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Antoine Maartens (+31 626 - 160 892)).

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.