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Discrete versus Continuous State Switching Models for Portfolio Credit Risk

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Author Info
André Lucas () (ECO/FIN, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
Pieter Klaassen () (ABN AMRO Bank NV, Amsterdam)

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Abstract

Dynamic models for credit rating transitions are important ingredients for dynamic credit risk analyses. We compare the properties of two such models that have recently been put forward. The models mainly differ in their treatment of systematic risk, which can be modeled either using discrete states (e.g., expansion versus recession) or continous states. It turns out that the implied asset correlations for discrete state switching models are implausibly low compared to correlation estimates in the literature. Given these limited correlations, we conclude that care has to be taken when discrete state regime switching models are employed for dynamic credit risk management. As a side result of our analysis, we obtain indirect evidence that default correlations may change over the business cycle.

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Publisher Info
Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-075/2.

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Date of creation: 29 Sep 2003
Date of revision: 30 Sep 2003
Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030075

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Related research
Keywords: credit risk; regime switching; latent variable models; factor models;

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Find related papers by JEL classification:
G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Mortgages
C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions
C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Other Model Applications

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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
  1. Lucas, Andre & Klaassen, Pieter & Spreij, Peter & Straetmans, Stefan, 2001. "An analytic approach to credit risk of large corporate bond and loan portfolios," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(9), pages 1635-1664, September. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  2. Siem Jan Koopman & André Lucas & Pieter Klaassen, 2002. "Pro-Cyclicality, Empirical Credit Cycles, and Capital Buffer Formation," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-107/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
  3. Linda Allen & Anthony Saunders, 2003. "A survey of cyclical effects in credit risk measurement model," BIS Working Papers 126, Bank for International Settlements. [Downloadable!]
  4. Merton, Robert C., 1973. "On the pricing of corporate debt: the risk structure of interest rates," Working papers 684-73., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management. [Downloadable!]
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  5. Duffie, Darrell & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1999. "Modeling Term Structures of Defaultable Bonds," Review of Financial Studies, Oxford University Press for Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(4), pages 687-720.
  6. Michael B. Gordy, 2002. "A risk-factor model foundation for ratings-based bank capital rules," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-55, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.). [Downloadable!]
  7. Bangia, Anil & Diebold, Francis X. & Kronimus, Andre & Schagen, Christian & Schuermann, Til, 2002. "Ratings migration and the business cycle, with application to credit portfolio stress testing," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(2-3), pages 445-474, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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  8. Jarrow, Robert A & Turnbull, Stuart M, 1995. " Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(1), pages 53-85, March. [Downloadable!] (restricted)
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Cited by:
(explanations, Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.)

  1. Petr Jakubík, 2007. "Credit Risk and the Finnish Economy," AUCO Czech Economic Review, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 254-285, November. [Downloadable!]
  2. Konrad Banachewicz & Aad van der Vaart & André Lucas, 2006. "Modeling Portfolio Defaults using Hidden Markov Models with Covariates," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-094/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  3. Konrad Banachewicz & André Lucas, 2007. "Quantile Forecasting for Credit Risk Management using possibly Mis-specified Hidden Markov Models," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-046/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
  4. Petr JAKUBÍK, 2007. "Macroeconomic Environment and Credit Risk (in English)," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 57(1-2), pages 60-78, March. [Downloadable!]
  5. Juri Marcucci & Mario Quagliariello, 2008. "Credit risk and business cycle over different regimes," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 670, Bank of Italy, Economic Research Department. [Downloadable!]
  6. Siem Jan Koopman & Roman Kraeussl & Andre Lucas & Andre Monteiro, 2006. "Credit Cycles and Macro Fundamentals," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 06-023/2, Tinbergen Institute. [Downloadable!]
    Other versions:
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