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Vulnerability in a Stochastic Dynamic Model

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  • Chris Elbers

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit)

  • Jan Willem Gunning

    ()
    (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, Vrije Universiteit)

Abstract

Most measures of vulnerability are a-theoretic and essentially static. In this paper we use a stochastic Ramsey model to find a household's optimal welfare and we measure vulnerability as the shortfall from the welfare attained if the household consumed permanently at the poverty line. The results indicate that vulnerability is very sensitive to the time horizon considered. We find that the accuracy of existing regression-based vulnerability measures can be greatly improved by including asset measures in the regression.

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File URL: http://papers.tinbergen.nl/03070.pdf
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Bibliographic Info

Paper provided by Tinbergen Institute in its series Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers with number 03-070/2.

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Date of creation: 11 Sep 2003
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Handle: RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20030070

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Web page: http://www.tinbergen.nl

Related research

Keywords: vulnerability; expected poverty; risk; Ramsey model; consumption regressions;

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Cited by:
  1. Ligon, Ethan A., 2011. "Dynamics, risk, and vulnerability," CUDARE Working Paper Series, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy 1112, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  2. David Bardey & Samir Kiuhan & Julio César Suárez, 2009. "Seguros de desempleo: revisión de literatura y propuesta para Colombia," DOCUMENTOS DE TRABAJO, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO 005739, UNIVERSIDAD DEL ROSARIO.
  3. Alessandro Federici & Pierluigi Montalbano, 2012. "Macroeconomic volatility, consumption behaviour and welfare: A cross-country analysis," Working Paper Series 3612, Department of Economics, University of Sussex.
  4. Md. Shafiul Azam & Katsushi S. Imai, 2012. "Measuring Households' Vulnerability to Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks – the case of Bangladesh," Discussion Paper Series, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University DP2012-02, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
  5. Ligon, Ethan, 2010. "Measuring risk by looking at changes in inequality : vulnerability in Ecuador," CUDARE Working Paper Series, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy 1095, University of California at Berkeley, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics and Policy.
  6. Kishtany, Naill & Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum, 2004. "Achieving the MDGs – A Note," MPRA Paper 26507, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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